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fxus63 keax 170516 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1116 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

issued at 245 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

Modest warm air advection has allowed temperatures to rise into the mid to upper
50s this afternoon. Tonight a cold front will approach the area
however, southerly flow out ahead of hat front will keep temperatures
relatively mild tonight with lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Tomorrow morning the front will begin to push into the area however,
with dry conditions in place it will take awhile for conditions to
saturate tomorrow morning. Consequently, the western half of the County Warning Area
will see less of a chance for precipitation with chance pops over
the eastern half of the County Warning Area during the morning. Cloud cover and
showers will keep temperatures cooler tomorrow with highs in the mid
40s to lower 50s. Sunday night a surface ridge of high pressure will
quickly move through the area with winds shifting back to the south
in its wake on Monday. This will allow temperatures to return to
near or slightly above normal with highs in the 50s. With height
rises across the area on Tuesday temperatures will further rise into
the mid 50s to lower 60s. A closed upper level low over the baja of
California Tuesday night will open up and eject out into The Four
Corners region on Wednesday and move into Central Plains by
Wednesday night. Out ahead of this system on Wednesday, strong warm air advection
as well as upper level ridging will help temperatures rise into the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

Wednesday night as the upper level trough moves into the Central
Plains showers and perhaps a isolated thunderstorm will develop over
the area. This system will have deep moisture to work with and pwats
in the 1.25"-1.35" range. As such, much of the area will experience
0.50"-1.00" of rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Cold air advection
behind this system will drop highs into the 40s to lower 50s. Another
system will move into the area Friday night. With some colder air in
place there will be the chance for some rain possibly mixing with
snow Friday night into Saturday morning.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1116 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

VFR conditions are expected across the area, until late morning,
when ceilings should drop to MVFR east of I-35. A cold front will
start moving through the area in a few hours, creating breezy
conditions and shifting winds to the northwest. As it moves
southeast, moisture will increase and low level clouds will
develop. It is possible the kc terminals and stj could see MVFR
ceilings for a brief time, but most likely solution right now is
low end VFR. This system will also eventually produce light rain,
but it looks like it will hold off until the front reaches
central MO. Can't rule out some patchy light rain in western parts
of the forecast area though. The rain and lower clouds will exit
the area behind the front tomorrow evening.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...

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