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000 
FXUS63 KEAX 051958
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
158 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 157 PM CST THU DEC 5 2019

Primary forecast focus is on temperatures and light precipitation 
chances in southern Missouri Tonight.

Key Messages...

1. Chilly end to the work week; after pleasant temperatures today, a 
cold front tonight will bring high temperatures, Friday, in the 
upper 30s and lower 40s. 

2. Light rain and drizzle will be possible late tonight, primarily 
south and southeast of Highway 50, with greater chances the farther 
south, up on the Ozark Plateau. 

3. A fast moving system into the region, Monday, will bring a chance 
for light rain and snow flurries to parts of the region. No 
accumulated snow is expected at this time, perhaps a dusting in 
far northern Missouri and southern Iowa.

Discussion... 

An open 500mb short wave continues to slowly climb it's way across 
the Rockies eastward. This feature will pick up some speed as it 
sweeps east-southeast across the Plains and into the Ozarks, 
influenced by increased ridging out west and a stout cold front 
pushing off the northern Plains. After midnight, the weak surface 
low will be riding along the Red River into the Ouachita's. Rain 
chances will exist across AR and into the MO Ozarks. Some rain and 
drizzle may skirt central Missouri, as far north as the Osage River-
Truman Reservoir-Lake of the Ozarks region.

Temperatures will be cooler, Friday, post frontal, with lows in the 
morning in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Afternoon highs will struggle 
to climb out of the 30s and lower 40s along with breezy north winds.

Good news, the weekend will be pleasant, with weak but broad ridging 
opening up the region to tempered warm air advection. Highs on 
Saturday will reach the lower 50s and highs Sunday will be in the 
mid 50s. 

Into Monday, rain chances will exist to the east, ahead of a broad, 
open, 500mb trough digging southeast off the northern Rockies. An 
area of broad surface low pressure will stretch across the central 
Plains, with the cold front pushing into northwestern Missouri 
through sunrise. This will be a fast moving front, with a window of 
light rain and light snow, possible through the day. Amounts are 
still expected to be paltry, with a dusting to a tenth of an inch 
across portions of northern and northeastern Missouri. 

Post cold front, temperatures Tuesday into mid-next week will be 
cold. Wind chill values Tuesday morning will be in the teens to 
single digits in northern Missouri; highs in the afternoon will not 
climb above freezing for most locations north of the Missouri
River. 

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1105 AM CST THU DEC 5 2019

VFR conditions will persist through the evening, with light south
winds shifting out of the north overnight. Early Friday morning,
north winds will be increasing with MVFR ceilings developing and
building in across area TAF sites; persisting through the end of
the period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

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