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fxus66 keka 181155 
afdeka

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Eureka California
455 am PDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Synopsis...isolated showers will taper off this morning, followed
by partial clearing through the day. Rain will return tonight into
Saturday morning and again on Sunday. Warmer and drier weather is
expected for the first half of next week.

&&

Discussion...a few lingering showers across the interior will
quickly taper off this morning as the latest in a series of fronts
to impact northwest California moves off to the east. This will
yield a mostly dry and partly cloudy day between systems embedded
in deep northwest flow aloft. The next system will arrive tonight
as a weak shortwave moves inland over SW Oregon and drags another
front across the area. Rain will begin late this evening across
del Norte County, spreading southward overnight and then tapering
off Saturday morning. Amounts will once again be greatest north of
Cape Mendocino, ranging from 0.5 to 1 inch across del norte and
northern Humboldt to less than a tenth of an inch across much of
Mendocino County. The last system is then poised to move through
the are on Sunday, bringing a chance of showers and generally much
lower rainfall amounts before tapering off Sunday evening.

A significant pattern change is on deck for early next week as a
Stout Ridge builds off of the central California coast. Rising heights
will bring much warmer and drier conditions to the area through
much of next week, with temperatures climbing back into the 80s
across the interior. /Cb

&&

Aviation...in the wake of another cold front, showers have
shifted south of Cape Mendocino and inland early this morning. Brief
IFR conditions will accompany these showers, with widespread terrain
obscurations across northwest California this morning. Uki will
likely remain VFR and may not even see vcsh. At cec and acv,
ceilings have lowered to MVFR and even locally IFR in the wake of
the front while visibility has improved. These ceilings will
gradually scatter and lift to VFR by the mid to late morning hours.
Winds will be mainly light today. Another front will push through
later tonight into Saturday morning. VFR conditions will last until
around 06z tonight at cec and acv, followed by a similar round of
rain and IFR visibility. South-southwest winds only 1500 ft above ground level may reach 35 knots as the
rain arrives, possibly resulting in a period of low level wind shear. IFR to MVFR
ceilings will likely linger much of Saturday morning as showers
taper off. /Aad

&&

Marine...a large northwest swell will continue to dominate the overall sea
state through Saturday. This swell will be the main hazard, though
another cold front will bring a period of rain and briefly stronger
southerly winds late tonight into Saturday north of Cape Mendocino.
Latest buoy observations this morning have the swell still close to
16 ft at 16 seconds; a little slower to lower than earlier
forecasts. Have pushed that trend forward, so that forecast heights
are now a foot or two higher through Saturday. Either way, Small
Craft Advisory conditions will continue until at least Sunday
morning. Winds will remain light today, and northerly to the south
of Cape Mendocino, until the cold front approaches tonight. A period
of 15 to 25 kt southerly winds will accompany the front north of
Cape Mendocino late tonight into Saturday morning, with some higher
gusts likely. Steeper seas will likely accompany these winds, mixed
on top of the ongoing swell. Northerly winds will pick up a bit
south of the cape later Saturday, followed by lighter winds on
Sunday. While the decay of the northwest swell will continue into Monday,
resulting in the lowest seas of the next 7 days, northerly winds may
gradually begin to increase early next week. As high pressure builds
offshore, some model guidance supports northerly gales across the
outer waters around next Wednesday, with steep seas of 10 to 15 feet
possible. /Aad

&&

Beach hazards...a large northwest swell will continue to impact the
coastal waters today, leading to 18 to 20 ft breaking waves on west to
northwest facing beaches. Increased wave run-up on beaches will continue,
with waves topping large rocks and jetties. These large waves can be
erratic and unpredictable, and with Sand Bar profiles still more
typical of Summer, locally larger waves may result. Beaches with a
steeper slope may be particularly dangerous. Beachgoers are urged to
use extra caution near the surf zone as these large waves will be
capable of sweeping people into the cold and turbulent ocean water.
The beach hazard statement continues through this afternoon.
Breaking waves will lower to 15 to 17 ft on Saturday. /Aad

&&

Eka watches/warnings/advisories...
California...beach hazards statement through this afternoon for caz101-103-
104-109.

Northwest California coastal waters...Small Craft Advisory until
9 am PDT Sunday for pzz450-455-470- 475.

&&

$$

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