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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
334 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Synopsis...
light to moderate rain showers will continue tonight for locations
east of the Rio Grande. Sunday will be drier but still with a
slight chance of rain near the international border, temperatures
will be a few degrees below average. For Monday through Thursday
we will isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
For the end of the week we will be drier with seasonal
temperatures.

&&

Discussion...
moisture out ahead of the remnants of Hurricane Lorena have been
moving across the southern and eastern part of area today and
bringing with it light to moderate showers. Locations west of Rio
Grande have generally stayed dry. This pattern looks to continue
through tonight, with the best chances for rain east of the Rio
Grande. We could see some thunderstorms pop up in locations like
Hidalgo or Luna County. Those locations have seen more sun today
and have just enough moisture to help fuel those thunderstorms.

On Sunday the upper level trough to our west will sweep across New
Mexico and that will filter in some drier air. The trick will be,
that the deeper moisture will continue linger just to our south.
In addition the remnants of Lorena will continue to drift north.
With those two factors in mind I will continue at least a slight
chance for rain mainly along the international border on Sunday.
The remnants of Lorena may move across the southwest New Mexico
late on Sunday, but right now it looks like most, if not all of
the moisture associated with the system will rain out in the
mountains of Mexico.

Then for Monday through Thursday our attention will turn to
another upper level trough moving through the Great Basin. As the
trough settles into Arizona it will pull up some of the lingering
moisture to the south over Mexico. Right now both the GFS and
European model (ecmwf) models indicate that the upper trough will stall over
southwestern Arizona. This will be close enough to give US some
isolated to scattered rain chances for the start of the week, but
if the trough settles closer to New Mexico, we may need to up the
storm chances even a little more. There will be some decent wind
shear so what storms do develop could be strong. After Thursday
the upper level trough will finally lift out and drier air will
work into the area giving US a drier conditions for the start of
the weekend.

Looking at temperatures, sunday's highs will be a little below
average near the international border with all the clouds that
will still be lingering around, further north temperatures will
run closer to seasonal averages. For the rest of the week our high
temperatures will near or a few degrees below average. It will
certainly feel like the first week of fall.

&&

Aviation...valid 22/00z-23/00z...
skies will generally be few-sct070-100 scattered-bkn200, with the most
coverage remaining south of a line from kalm to kdmn. The chance for
showers and storms will remain along the international border and
from kelp-kalm and areas to the east. Localized vrb25g40kt 1-3sm
bkn030-040 will be possible with any thunderstorms and rain. Surface winds will be
southwesterly at 5-15kts with occasional gusts to 20kts during the
afternoon hours.

&&

Fire weather...
chances for wetting precipitation will be on the rise in the coming
days. Initially the best rain chances will stay closer to the
international border and over far eastern zones. However an
approaching upper disturbance early next week will bring improved
rain chances to all areas. Min relative humidity values will remain higher than
usual thanks to increased moisture levels and somewhat cooler
than normal temperatures. Vent rates should begin to improve early
next week as transport wind speeds begin to increase.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 66 83 67 87 / 30 10 10 10
Sierra Blanca 61 77 61 84 / 50 30 20 30
Las Cruces 59 82 61 85 / 10 0 0 10
Alamogordo 60 84 61 83 / 10 0 0 20
Cloudcroft 47 63 47 65 / 20 10 10 40
Truth or Consequences 58 83 58 83 / 0 0 0 20
Silver City 51 77 51 76 / 0 0 10 30
Deming 57 83 60 84 / 10 0 0 20
Lordsburg 57 84 60 83 / 10 10 10 30
west El Paso Metro 65 82 66 87 / 30 10 10 10
Dell City 62 84 62 87 / 40 10 10 20
Fort Hancock 67 80 68 88 / 40 20 20 30
Loma Linda 60 77 61 82 / 40 20 10 20
Fabens 64 82 66 88 / 30 20 10 20
Santa Teresa 62 82 63 86 / 20 10 10 10
White Sands hq 61 83 64 86 / 20 0 0 20
Jornada range 59 83 60 84 / 10 0 0 20
Hatch 59 84 61 85 / 0 0 0 20
Columbus 60 82 62 86 / 20 10 10 20
Orogrande 61 83 63 85 / 20 10 0 20
Mayhill 51 74 51 73 / 20 10 10 40
Mescalero 50 73 50 73 / 20 0 0 40
Timberon 49 72 49 73 / 30 10 10 30
Winston 46 77 47 75 / 0 0 0 30
Hillsboro 55 82 55 81 / 0 0 0 30
spaceport 58 84 59 83 / 0 0 0 30
Lake Roberts 46 76 47 74 / 0 0 0 30
Hurley 51 79 53 78 / 0 0 10 30
cliff 50 83 50 81 / 0 0 10 30
Mule Creek 51 80 52 78 / 0 10 10 30
Faywood 53 80 54 79 / 0 0 0 30
Animas 59 84 60 84 / 10 20 10 30
Hachita 57 82 58 84 / 10 20 10 20
Antelope Wells 58 80 58 83 / 30 30 20 20
Cloverdale 58 78 57 77 / 30 30 20 30

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

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