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fxus64 kepz 141117 
afdepz

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
417 am MST Thu Nov 14 2019

Synopsis...
quiet conditions with occasional high clouds will keep temperatures
steady today and Friday before warming to normal mid-November
readings on Saturday. A weather system passing to the east Sunday
morning will push a cold front through dropping temperatures a few
degrees while the area remains dry. The return of westerly flow will
allow gradual warming to occur ahead of our next potential weather
system mid-week.

&&

Discussion...
short term...
northwesterly flow aloft continues as an upper level ridge builds
to our west. Eventually (by later this evening), high clouds will
begin spilling into the area, but in the meantime, expect mostly
clear skies.

A weak backdoor cold front is currently located just west of a
Roswell-Carlsbad line, and will work into the area by mid-morning.
Low level winds are not very impressive, so West-Slope winds will
only be slightly elevated. Temperatures look to stay close to
yesterday's (wednesday's) highs except east over parts of Otero and
Hudspeth County.

&&

Long term...Saturday through Friday
the upper level ridging will transition into zonal flow during the
day on Saturday. This westerly flow will allow high temperatures to
warm 5 or so degrees and reach normal readings for mid-November.
Things will change on Sunday as an upper trough skirts past the
area during the morning hours. Both the current GFS and European model (ecmwf)
model runs now show this feature staying far enough to the east to
keep the entire County Warning Area dry. However, it will still send another cold
front down through the area briefly turning winds
northerly/northeasterly on Sunday. Winds may be breezy during the
early morning hours, especially in far eastern locations. The cold
air advection with this front won't be very strong as temps only
look to cool a couple of degrees.

As that system continues to move off to the east on Monday, upper
level ridging will once again start to build in across the
southwest. Skies will clear and temperatures will warm into the
upper 60s to right around 70 degrees for The Lowlands.

Tuesday and beyond pose a challenge as model discrepancies make
the forecast difficult. Both the Euro and the GFS have a strong
upper low off the coast of baja to start the period. The Euro then
quickly Ushers it off to the east and into the Desert Southwest
bringing increased cloudcover and a slight chance of rain for
parts of our forecast area beginning Tuesday night. Meanwhile, the
GFS is less aggressive by keeping the weakening low to our south
over Mexico only impacting the Borderland with additional
cloudcover. For now, I included low pops starting over the western
half of the County Warning Area Tuesday night then spreading across the rest of
the area Wednesday.

The model differences continue for the end of the forecast period as
the Euro develops a strong low pressure system along the coast of
California resulting in moisture lingering over the area to finish
the week. However, the GFS flushes all of the moisture out as we
return to more zonal flow. Temperatures next week will depend on
which model solution is correct regarding the amount of cloudcover
and moisture that enters the region. For now, we look to stay near
normal through Thursday.

&&

Aviation...12z taf cycle
clear skies and light/variable winds will shift to the east and
southeast later today as a weak backdoor front pushes into the
region, but wind speeds will remain relatively light. Expect some
increasing high clouds this evening, with scattered-bkn250 likely by Fri
morning.

&&

Fire weather...
a weak backdoor cold front will push through the area this morning.
This will result in winds turning easterly to southeasterly
throughout the day. Speeds look to remain lighter except for maybe
a few breezes to 20mph in the afternoon. This front will hold
temperatures in the lower 60s across The Lowlands today and
Friday. Winds will become westerly on Saturday as we transition in
between weather systems.

An upper trough will move by to the east of the area on Sunday while
dragging another front from north to south across the state during
the morning hours. Winds will become northerly to northeasterly
areawide and breezy in eastern locations. However, this will be
short-lived as winds will return to being westerly Sunday evening as
upper ridging takes over. As of the current model run, this system
looks to remain precip-free. Differences in model solutions next
week make the forecast difficult as one model suggests a chance on
rain by mid-week, while the other keeps US dry.

Temperatures will generally remain close to normal for mid-November
with a few occasional dips as weak fronts move through. Min rhs will
generally hold in the lower to mid 20s for The Lowlands. Vent rates
will remain poor to fair through the weekend.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 63 36 62 42 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 58 31 59 38 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 62 32 60 37 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 61 32 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 48 28 50 35 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 64 35 62 40 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 63 34 61 39 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 65 32 63 36 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 67 35 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
west El Paso Metro 63 38 62 43 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 60 30 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 63 33 64 39 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 58 34 58 40 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 62 35 63 40 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 62 33 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 61 36 62 41 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 62 30 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 64 33 63 36 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 65 34 62 37 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 61 33 60 38 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 51 28 58 36 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 54 28 56 34 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 53 27 54 32 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 60 27 60 32 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 64 33 62 37 / 0 0 0 0
spaceport 62 33 61 36 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 65 24 64 30 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 63 31 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
cliff 70 27 68 30 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 68 29 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 63 33 62 37 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 69 34 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 66 32 63 34 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 66 35 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 69 38 64 41 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

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