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000 
FXUS64 KEPZ 142008
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
208 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances will be limited to west Texas and along the
International Border this evening into tomorrow, as Pacific
moisture streams by to the south. The best chances for rain will 
be over Hudspeth County tonight and tomorrow. Dry weather resumes
Tuesday evening as moisture exits. A backdoor cold front arrives 
Wednesday morning, with slightly cooler temperatures. Near normal 
temperatures are expected the rest of the week with breezy west 
winds next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows broad high pressure 
aloft over the Gulf of Mexico allowing for Pacific moisture to 
advect northeastward across west Texas. This band of moisture is 
fairly narrow, mostly focused over northern Chihuahua and the Big
Bend area. To our west, a shortwave trough centered over southern
California is providing broad lifting for scattered rain showers 
along the International Border. Winds at the surface are 
southwesterly, doing their best to advect moisture northward 
across the border. Dewpoints in the 50-60F range have advanced as 
far north as Interstate 10 in southern New Mexico.

Rain chances this evening into Tuesday will be limited mainly to
far west Texas, especially across Hudspeth County. Storm total
precipitation estimates vary from about 0.25" to as high as 
1.00" in a few spots. A few weak thunderstorms are possible Tuesday
afternoon as weak instability sets in, but most of this event 
will feature light rains. By Tuesday evening, the upper shortwave
will have reached central NM, forcing any leftover moisture out 
of the area to our southeast.

A backdoor cold front arrives Wednesday morning and will cool
temperatures down slightly. Only a 3-6 degree cooling is 
expected, however, so lowland highs should still reach the 
mid-70's. 

Dry ridging aloft will dominate the weather pattern toward the 
end of the week, with seasonal temperatures and mostly clear 
skies. Winds may be breezy next weekend as west flow develops in 
response to modest lee cyclogenesis, with continued near normal 
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 15/00Z-16/00Z... 
P6SM FEW-BKN060-080 with greatest cloud coverage south of line from 
KALM-KDMN. There will be isolated to scattered 3-5SM -TSRA and -SHRA 
BKN040-060 over this area to the south as well with greatest rain 
coverage over Hudspeth county. Winds will start out west to 
southwest at 5-15KTS becoming north to northwest after 12Z. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper trough will tap some remnant tropical moisture as it moves 
across the region over the next day. This will bring isolated to 
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to the region, especially 
south of Interstate 10 and through far west Texas. High temperatures 
will generally run within 5 degrees of normal through the upcoming 
week with light winds through Thursday before breezy conditions 
return as a broad upper trough moves over the Rockies. Minimum 
relative humidities will be at or above 20 percent through Thursday 
as well but will start to fall off into the mid to upper teens for 
many lowland locations for the weekend. Vent rates poor tomorrow but 
gradually improve to fair to good from west to east going into later 
in the week. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 60  79  55  74 /  30  40  10   0 
Sierra Blanca           55  73  48  67 /  40  40  10   0 
Las Cruces              53  76  49  73 /  20  20   0   0 
Alamogordo              53  79  49  75 /  10  10   0   0 
Cloudcroft              39  59  34  56 /  10  20   0   0 
Truth or Consequences   51  78  49  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Silver City             47  73  46  71 /  10   0   0   0 
Deming                  52  78  49  74 /  20  20   0   0 
Lordsburg               52  78  51  76 /  10   0   0   0 
West El Paso Metro      61  79  55  75 /  40  40  10   0 
Dell City               56  79  48  72 /  40  40  10   0 
Fort Hancock            61  80  54  75 /  40  40  10   0 
Loma Linda              57  73  49  68 /  40  40  10   0 
Fabens                  61  79  55  74 /  40  40  10   0 
Santa Teresa            57  78  52  74 /  30  40  10   0 
White Sands HQ          58  78  53  74 /  20  20   0   0 
Jornada Range           53  78  49  74 /  20  20   0   0 
Hatch                   52  79  49  76 /  10   0   0   0 
Columbus                57  78  52  74 /  30  30   0   0 
Orogrande               54  78  49  74 /  20  30   0   0 
Mayhill                 44  69  37  65 /  20  20   0   0 
Mescalero               42  68  37  66 /  10  10   0   0 
Timberon                43  65  37  61 /  20  20   0   0 
Winston                 39  72  37  71 /   0   0   0   0 
Hillsboro               49  77  46  74 /  10   0   0   0 
Spaceport               50  78  47  74 /  10   0   0   0 
Lake Roberts            39  74  38  73 /   0   0   0   0 
Hurley                  46  75  45  72 /  10   0   0   0 
Cliff                   42  81  41  81 /  10   0   0   0 
Mule Creek              46  76  45  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Faywood                 49  75  47  73 /  10   0   0   0 
Animas                  52  79  50  77 /  20  10   0   0 
Hachita                 51  77  49  74 /  20  20   0   0 
Antelope Wells          53  77  50  75 /  30  30   0   0 
Cloverdale              52  73  51  72 /  30  20   0   0 

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

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