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fxus64 kepz 111048 
afdepz

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
348 am MST Wed Dec 11 2019

Synopsis...
lingering moisture may lead to isolated areas of fog or freezing
fog through the morning hours today but areal coverage will be
limited. Quiet weather is expected Wednesday through Friday with
a few occasionally gusty surface winds across eastern portions of
the Sacramento Mountains Friday. Above average temperatures and
breezy winds will develop Saturday afternoon, with breezy to
windy conditions on Sunday. Winds will be strongest across the
east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains and Black Range. There
will be a few light rain/snow showers as well across northern
portions of the Gila, the Black Range, and Sacramento Mountains
Sunday night into early Monday. Cooler temperatures push into the
region Monday through the middle portion of next week with dry
conditions.

&&

Discussion...
short term...today and tonight...
we will see a generally quiet weather pattern for the next 24 hours.
Lingering surface moisture from our rains on Monday, may still lead
to some isolated areas of fog/freezing fog this morning. I'm
thinking if any fog does develop it will be very limited in areal
coverage. We have less moisture to work with this morning than
yesterday morning and a band of cirrus clouds is slowly building
across the area. This cirrus may be enough to help limit any fog
this morning.

We will start the day with a dry and cool northwest flow aloft may
limit US to only a degree or two of warming this afternoon, so high
temperatures this afternoon will still be below average. By
Wednesday evening a short wave upper level trough will dash across
northern New Mexico. Unlike other recent troughs, this system will
have next to zero moisture to work with, so no rain/snow chances are
expected. Also, usually a system like this would help usher in some
cooler air into the region, but thursday's highs look the same or a
few degrees warmer than wednesday's highs. All and all, this upper
level trough will pass by with little or no impact to our weather.

&&

Brice

&&

Long term...

A quiet start to the long term on Thursday. West to northwest
flow aloft will keep conditions dry with mostly sunny skies and
mainly light winds. Temperatures will be near to a few degrees
above normal. Temperatures continue to climb Friday through the
weekend with much above normal high temperatures (low to mid 60s)
Saturday and Sunday.

Friday will be another quiet, sunny and dry day with a few breezy
surface gusts possible across the Sacramento Mountains mainly with
teens across portions of The Lowlands. The next major influence
develops Saturday and especially on Sunday. Potent west/southwest
flow aloft will induce surface cyclogenesis across the Colorado/nm
border Saturday afternoon/evening. This Lee cyclone will drift to
the south into east/southeast nm by Sunday. As a result, breezy to
windy conditions are expected to develop across the area
beginning Saturday afternoon and especially during the day on
Sunday. Timing and specifics are still a bit in question but the
best chance for windy conditions will be on the east slopes of the
Sacramento Mountains and Black Range with breezy conditions
elsewhere. As the surface cyclone drifts to the south there will
be a few slight chances for isolated rain/snow showers across the
Gila, Black Range, and Sacramento Mountains Sunday night into
early Monday. All potential accumulations appear to be very light.

Monday the main shortwave trough will pass to the north of the
area kicking the surface low to the east. Surface winds will shift
to the north/northeast and temperatures will cool as a result.
Winds on Monday will relax through the afternoon hours with
temperatures falling below average.

Despite agreement on surface conditions Monday, differences in
guidance are apparent aloft early next week. The European model (ecmwf) builds a
ridge to our west Monday through Thursday keeping the region dry
and free of any storm threats. On the other hand, the GFS
continues to show a deepening upper level system to our
west/southwest which increases moisture by mid/late next week.
Based on agreement between ECMWF, eps, and other guidance, the
forecast reflects a mostly dry and quiet end of next week.

&&

Delizio/Brice



Aviation...12z taf cycle
we will see VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. There could be
some isolated fog/freezing fog this morning, but it will be very
limited (if it forms at all). Our surface winds may be from the west
in the early am, but then come around to the southeast and stay
there during the lat morning hours 13005kt. Our winds will stay
below 10 knots for the next 24 hours. We will see some high level
ceilings of bkn250 during the day, but by later this evening and
into the overnight hours we will see sky clear-sct250 high clouds.



&&

Brice



&&

Fire weather...

Mostly dry weather expected through the next week. Pleasant
weather conditions expected today through Friday with mainly clear
skies, above normal temperatures, and average wind gusts in the
teens across The Lowlands on Thursday/Friday with higher values
across eastern portions of the Sacramento Mountains.

Deep and strong westerly upper level flow will induce Lee side
troughing Saturday into Sunday. As a result, surface winds will
begin to increase Saturday afternoon to breezy, with breezy to
winds conditions Sunday. The east slopes of the Sacramento
Mountains and Black Range will be the windiest locations. Sunday
night into early Monday as the surface trough slides to the south
there will be the chance for a few rain/snow showers across the
Gila, Black Range, and Sacramento Mountains. All accumulations
will be light. On Monday, surface winds will begin to decrease
with cooler temperatures expected through the middle part of next
week. Mainly dry conditions will prevail as well.

Vent rates will be mainly poor today through Friday increasing
slightly to poor to fair Saturday. Increasing winds on Sunday
result in good/very good rates. A downward trend back to poor is
expected as winds and temperatures decrease next Monday through
Wednesday.

Min rh's will be in the 30s and 40s through the weekend with the
only exception being today where 50s and a few low 60s are
expected. Into the early part of next week, 20s and 30s will be
likely as drier cooler air pushes into the region.



&&

Delizio/Brice

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 57 37 58 37 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 55 34 57 35 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 55 32 57 35 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 57 31 60 34 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 42 24 44 30 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 54 31 57 36 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 52 30 56 35 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 55 29 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 55 31 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
west El Paso Metro 58 38 59 38 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 58 31 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 62 34 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 54 36 55 37 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 60 35 60 37 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 57 31 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 57 36 60 39 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 55 31 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 57 31 60 34 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 55 33 59 37 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 57 33 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 54 29 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 50 25 52 30 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 48 26 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 48 27 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 55 30 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
spaceport 55 29 57 33 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 54 25 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 53 29 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
cliff 59 24 62 28 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 54 29 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 53 31 59 36 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 57 31 60 34 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 55 29 58 32 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 57 31 62 36 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 54 33 57 37 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

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