Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kepz 171020 
afdepz

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
420 am MDT Thu Oct 17 2019

Synopsis...
dry and mostly mild conditions will persist across the Borderland
the remainder of this week into much of next week as dry westerly
flow aloft dominates. Winds will become breezy in the afternoon
Friday through Sunday. Temperatures will be be just above normal
much of the time, but a weak cool front drops in late Sunday night
to bring cooler temperatures to the area Monday and Tuesday.

&&

Discussion...
dry weather will be the operative word through the entire forecast
period as a strong jet stream over the North Pacific creates a
series of low amplitude trough/ridge pairings sweeping through.
The first trough to move through is currently over Southern
California and will sweep through this evening. Models show
modest dewpoint and precipitable water increases so some cloud development
possible late afternoon and evening, mainly over the mountains and
western zones. Kept ghost pops in but don't think pattern warrants
actual weather for the grids-at least at this time.

A second upper trough currently over northern California will move
in Friday. Little or no clouds with this but feature should
develop Lee-cyclogenesis over southeast Colorado and increase our winds
into breezy category (15-25 mph). Winds will still be near breezy
for Sat/sun as several more weak troughs move through.

GFS/European model (ecmwf) both show Sunday trough deepening as it moves out over
the northern plains Sunday night. This will drag a northern
Pacific cool front down over the area from the "side door",
reaching the northern County Warning Area Sunday evening and then south through
the entire area by Monday morning. This could bring brief gusty
winds through north-south channeled areas such as the Sierra lakes
and Tularosa basin. Seasonable temperature will turn cooler for
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

Aviation...valid 17/12z-18/12z... VFR conditions through the
period. Skies few-sct200-250. Winds start out from the east at or below
10kts. After 18z winds switch west at 5-15 knots.

&&

Fire weather...
fall patterns have returned to the area. An upper level trough
sweeps through the area Friday, bringing breezy conditions that
afternoon and evening. Drier air stays around today and into the
weekend, so no rain chances with this system. Min rh's stay in the
low 30s and high 20s today, but start to decrease to low 20s and
teen for this weekend. Calm winds Saturday, however another upper
level trough moves in Sunday night. No moisture with this, but
breezy conditions will return Sunday as a backdoor coldfront looks
to drop in. Temperatures remain around normal tomorrow and into the
weekend. Vent rates will start out good to very good through Friday,
with fair to poor on Saturday, moving to fair to good on Sunday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 80 61 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 74 54 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 78 56 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 78 56 81 49 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 64 39 63 36 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 79 54 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 75 49 73 44 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 78 56 79 47 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 80 55 78 48 / 0 0 0 0
west El Paso Metro 81 62 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 80 56 83 51 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 82 59 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 75 55 79 53 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 81 61 83 56 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 79 59 81 51 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 78 60 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 77 56 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 79 55 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 79 59 81 51 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 77 56 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 76 44 71 41 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 73 42 73 38 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 70 42 71 39 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 77 39 78 36 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 78 50 80 45 / 0 0 0 0
spaceport 77 54 80 48 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 77 40 77 36 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 76 49 76 43 / 0 0 0 0
cliff 78 39 77 37 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 78 39 76 38 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 76 50 78 45 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 83 54 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 80 54 79 47 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 82 54 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 79 52 77 48 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations