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fxus64 kepz 132030 
afdepz

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
230 PM MDT sun Oct 13 2019

Synopsis...
moisture from a tropical system will move far enough north on
Monday to bring a few showers to mainly the vicinity of the
international border. By Tuesday drier air will move in from the
west and begin an extended dry period. Temperatures will cool down
somewhat on Wednesday behind a backdoor front, but otherwise will
be at or slightly above normal through next weekend.

&&

Discussion...
cooler air behind a recent backdoor front has retreated with
temperatures returning to around normal today, which in the middle
of October is quite pleasant. Meanwhile high level moisture from
a tropical system located over the southern tip of Baja California is
bulging northward. This moisture should spread over the southern
portion of our area...mainly Hidalgo/Luna/Dona Ana/El
Paso/Hudspeth counties the next 24 to 36 hours and deepen enough
to produce some showers. Most models keep the showers south of the
international border but I think our southern areas will see a
few Monday afternoon and overnight into early Tuesday. If so,
rainfall amounts would be light.

A weak upper trough will move east across the Borderland Tuesday
and push out the moisture, replacing it with dry westerlies. At
the low levels cooler air will follow a backdoor front from the
northeast Tuesday night and Wednesday, but not much cooler. Breezy
east winds along western slopes can be expected during this time.
This will be followed by an upper ridge and temperatures at or a
little above normal Thursday, then a minor upper trough with
somewhat breezy conditions Friday. A stronger trough passing to
our north could produce low end windy conditions Sunday with an
associated Pacific front bringing in cooler air. With the mid
level westerlies in control, the entire period after Monday will
be dry.



&&

Aviation...valid 14/00z-15/00z...
p6sm sky clear-sct250 through 12z then increasing clouds from south to
north becoming few-sct060-080 sct-bkn200-250. Isolated 3-5sm -tsra
bkn040-060 mainly south of kalm-kdmn line after 12z.

&&

Fire weather...
generally seasonable temperatures for the upcoming week with
relative humidities at or above 20 percent. Winds will be on the
light side through most of the week with morning breezes Wednesday
behind a weak cold front and then winds picking up Friday into the
weekend as an upper trough passes to the north. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible mainly over southern half of the area
tomorrow as some remnant tropical moisture tries to move into the
area, otherwise dry conditions this week. Vent rates will remain
in the poor to good categories.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 58 79 58 81 / 0 20 20 0
Sierra Blanca 54 73 55 76 / 10 20 20 10
Las Cruces 50 77 51 77 / 0 10 10 0
Alamogordo 52 79 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 38 59 38 59 / 0 10 0 0
Truth or Consequences 50 79 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 46 72 47 72 / 0 0 10 0
Deming 49 77 51 78 / 0 10 10 0
Lordsburg 50 77 51 77 / 0 10 20 0
west El Paso Metro 59 79 58 81 / 0 20 20 0
Dell City 54 79 54 82 / 0 20 20 0
Fort Hancock 59 79 59 83 / 10 20 20 0
Loma Linda 55 74 55 75 / 0 20 20 0
Fabens 59 79 58 81 / 0 20 20 0
Santa Teresa 55 78 54 78 / 0 20 20 0
White Sands hq 57 79 56 79 / 0 10 10 0
Jornada range 51 78 52 77 / 0 10 10 0
Hatch 50 79 51 78 / 0 0 10 0
Columbus 54 78 55 78 / 0 20 20 0
Orogrande 52 78 53 78 / 0 10 10 0
Mayhill 44 69 45 70 / 0 10 0 0
Mescalero 42 68 42 68 / 0 10 0 0
Timberon 42 64 43 65 / 0 10 10 0
Winston 38 74 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 47 77 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
spaceport 49 78 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 39 73 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 45 74 46 74 / 0 0 10 0
cliff 41 80 42 80 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 45 74 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 47 75 48 75 / 0 0 10 0
Animas 50 79 51 78 / 0 10 20 0
Hachita 49 77 50 77 / 0 10 20 0
Antelope Wells 51 77 51 78 / 10 30 20 0
Cloverdale 50 73 51 74 / 10 30 30 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.

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