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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
1019 PM MST Thu Dec 12 2019

Previous discussion...456 PM MST Thu Dec 12 2019...

Aviation...06z taf cycle
possibly a few areas of 1-3sm visibility in fog east of the Rio
Grande between 11z and 15z. Otherwise westerly flow aloft over
high pressure at the surface will bring VFR conditions with skies
sky clear-sct250 and wind speeds mostly 4 to 12 kts.

$$

Previous discussion...311 PM MST Thu Dec 12 2019...

Synopsis...
temperatures will slowly warm up as we head into the weekend,
topping off on Saturday when highs will reach the upper 60s to
around 70. Warm and very windy weather will arrive on Sunday, with
west winds possibly gusting over 50 mph. Much cooler temperatures
will arrive for early next week as a strong cold front pushes in
from the north.

&&

Discussion...
short term...today and tonight...
quiet weather in the short term as northwest flow aloft keeps the
area dry. High moisture aloft will produce some high clouds aloft,
but skies should remain mostly clear. Another morning of patchy fog
is possible tomorrow, especially along the lower Rio valley in West
Texas and the lower Tularosa basin in Otero County. With slightly
warmer temperatures and even further removed from the rains a few
days ago, however, coverage should be less than what we saw this
morning across El Paso.

Light west surface flow will remain 5 to 10 mph and slowly warm the
area on Friday. Lowland high temperatures will reach the lower 60's,
around 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

Long term...
zonal flow will develop over the Desert Southwest on Saturday,
bringing warming conditions and slightly breezy west winds in the
afternoon as weak Lee side troughing develops. A shortwave trough
moving into northern California Sunday Saturday night will move
across The Four Corners Sunday afternoon. This will induce Lee
cyclogenesis with a 997 mb surface low developing in northeastern
New Mexico Sunday afternoon. The resulting increase in surface
pressure gradient will lead to windy conditions across the area.
Forecast soundings indicate deep mixing to around 700 mb, with
momentum Transfer supporting wind gusts of 45 to 50 knots. Wind
advisories or even warnings may become necessary. Some light
blowing dust will be likely, but as the most prolific dust source
regions are likely still waterlogged, visibility reductions in
bldu are expected to be minimal.

The initial shortwave trough will move out of the area Sunday
night, but a secondary disturbance and a sidedoor cold front will
arrive Monday, followed by a stronger backdoor push of cooler air
on Tuesday. Expect temperatures to run well below normal for at
least the first half of next week, with highs struggling to get
out of the upper-40s in The Lowlands (including el paso) Tuesday
and Wednesday.

Temperatures will trend back to near normal by Friday as
southwesterly flow aloft returns, but there is a slight chance of
weak Pacific system bringing some precip to the area as well.

&&

Fire weather...
temperatures will slowly climb above normal over the next few
days, peaking on Saturday at around 8 to 12 degrees above normal,
with lower-70s possible in The Lowlands. Overnight relative humidity recoveries
will remain very good tonight and Friday night as leftover
moisture lingers. However, we'll see see a brief transition to a
warmer/drier/windier conditions on Sunday, with westerly winds
gusting over 50 mph possible Sunday afternoon. However, minimum relative humidity
values will remain in the 30 to 50 percent range (lowlands to
mountains), far from critical thresholds.

The warm and windy conditions will quickly end. A cold front will
bring much cooler temperatures to the region Monday through
Wednesday, with highs running about 10 degrees below normal.

Warmer temperatures, and perhaps chance for precipitation, will
return by the end of next week.

&&

&&

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 57 38 64 43 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 56 35 61 40 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 57 35 63 39 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 57 34 64 39 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 43 27 46 34 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 57 36 63 40 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 55 34 59 38 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 59 33 64 36 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 57 34 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
west El Paso Metro 57 39 65 43 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 60 33 66 38 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 62 35 68 40 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 52 37 59 42 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 58 37 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 57 33 64 39 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 57 38 64 43 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 55 33 62 37 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 59 33 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 59 36 64 39 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 56 33 63 39 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 57 33 60 38 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 51 29 55 35 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 50 28 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 56 33 60 39 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 58 35 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
spaceport 56 33 62 36 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 57 30 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 57 33 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
cliff 61 28 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 56 33 60 39 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 58 35 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 59 34 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 58 33 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 62 35 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 56 37 61 41 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.

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