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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
348 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Synopsis...
an upper level disturbance will bring breezy to windy conditions
on Sunday (however not as strong as the winds on friday)
beginning late afternoon and last through the evening. An
associated "cold" front will result in a few degree drop in
temperatures on Monday. Mostly sunny skies and tranquil weather
will move in for Tuesday and Wednesday. The next upper level
system will move in Thursday afternoon, creating breezy to windy
conditions once again for the region.

&&

Discussion...
a pleasant afternoon and evening expected with near normal
temperatures and generally light wind as we sit under mostly
zonal mid-level flow aloft, bringing a break from weather
systems.

A potent upper level wave has entered the Pacific northwest and
will amplify as it moves into the northern rockies overnight
tonight. With the zonal component in the mid-levels ahead of the
low, Lee troughing will develop in eastern Colorado, extending
into eastern New Mexico. 12z model runs have indicated a slight
northern shift of the location of the low tomorrow morning. This
will limit the main impacts of this system to breezy to near
windy conditions Sunday late morning through the evening, along
with a drop in relative humidity due to a drier airmass advecting into the
region. This may increase fire weather concerns Sunday afternoon,
especially in the Tularosa Basin. A dry, attendant "cold" front
will also push through the area by Monday morning, however this
will only result in a few degree decrease in high temperatures on
Monday.

Widespread subsidence and northwest upper level flow will create
mostly clear skies on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will
return to above normal thanks to plenty of sunshine and light
wind.

On Thursday afternoon, both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) show an upper level
trough embedded in the aforementioned northwest flow deepening as
it enters The Rockies. This system will bring a strong cold front
with a cold Canadian airmass into the the forecast area starting
Thursday afternoon. There is some differences in solutions,
with the European model (ecmwf) indicating the trough developing into a closed
low, and drops into northern Texas. While the GFS keeps the
trough as an open wave. This will affect the strength of the
surface pressure gradient, and therefore winds, that develop on
Thursday evening and overnight Friday. At this time, have kept
winds on the breezy side. The cooler airmass will bring
temperatures 5(+) degrees below normal on Thursday night and 10(+)
degrees below normal on Friday.

&&

Aviation...valid 20/00z-21/00z...
VFR conditions expected through the valid period. Skies will be
clear through the period with no precipitation events. Winds this
afternoon will be from the west at 8 to 12 knots except ktcs which
will have winds from the south at 7-11 knots. Wind speeds will
decrease overnight through 12z. An upper level system will pass
north of the area and increase westerly wind speeds to 15 to 20
knots with gusts up to 30 knots after 18z on Sunday.



&&

Fire weather...
calm, dry and warm conditions expected for the
rest of this afternoon and tonight. Drier air will have entered
the region, dropping min relative humidity to the lower teens and upper 20s.
Another upper level trough moves through the region Sunday
bringing breezy to near windy conditions by the afternoon. Min relative humidity
on Sunday will drop into the lower teens by late afternoon. While
dry, winds should stay just below critical fire weather
thresholds. Temperatures remain around normal through the weekend.
Max vent rates are poor to fair this afternoon and will rise to
very good on Sunday.

There will be a pleasant start to the week thanks to below normal
temperatures. With the drier airmass still in place, min relative humidity will
stay in the teens with modest overnight recoveries. Wind, however,
remains light.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 54 80 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 54 79 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 47 78 41 75 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 50 77 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 44 56 28 53 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 47 78 40 74 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 42 69 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 43 77 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 45 77 40 76 / 0 0 0 0
west El Paso Metro 52 79 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 52 81 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 55 83 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 50 74 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 53 81 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 51 79 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 51 79 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 46 78 40 74 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 48 79 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 47 79 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 49 79 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 44 68 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 45 65 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 45 64 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 41 70 25 69 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 44 76 36 74 / 0 0 0 0
spaceport 45 77 39 74 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 38 70 26 70 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 42 72 34 71 / 0 0 0 0
cliff 44 75 30 75 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 45 73 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 42 73 37 73 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 45 79 41 78 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 44 77 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 46 79 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 45 74 43 74 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

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