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fxus64 kepz 051743 
afdepz

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
1043 am MST Thu Dec 5 2019

..updated aviation discussion...

Aviation...18z taf cycle
westerly surface winds have already increased above 25kts along
eastern slopes of local mountains. Expect to see the rest of the
area's west winds increase to 15-20kts with gusts to 25kts by 20z.
Wind speeds will begin to subside generally after 00z and become
northwesterly/northerly at less than 10kts throughout the night.

Currently have few-sct040-080 clouds downwind of most mountains
with patches scattered-bkn250 areawide. These should dissipate as the
upper level trough exits to the east after 21z leaving behind
sky clear-few250 skies into the overnight hours.

&&

Previous discussion...443 am MST Thu Dec 5 2019...

Synopsis...
an upper level system may bring a few showers this
morning to the Gila region but dry air will limit any chances for
showers by afternoon. Breezy conditions will develop across the
region in response to a Lee side trough this afternoon. Dry westerly
flow aloft will overspread the region through Saturday with near
normal temperatures Friday and above normal temperatures on
Saturday. The next weather maker will be an upper level system
arriving late Sunday into Monday. There will be the possibility for
showers and breezy conditions both days. Temperatures aloft will
cool Sunday night into Monday with a few light snow showers possible
across the high peaks of the Black Range and Sacramento Mountains. A
cold front moves through Monday night into early Tuesday chilling
temperatures, but dry conditions are expected through the middle
portion of next week.

&&

Discussion...
short term...today and tonight...
an upper level storm system will continue to make its way across
southern Colorado. This system may bring a few light rain showers to
the Gila region this morning, but the early afternoon drier air will
be working in the back side of the system so we will see the early
morning clouds give way to mostly sunny skies. The upper level
trough will be able to generate a Lee side trough over northeastern
New Mexico, but the timing of the best winds is a little off to
maximize the best wind dynamics. So we will see some breezy
afternoon winds but it should not be to bad of an afternoon. And
then as the upper trough pushes east, it will help drag the Lee side
trough also to the east, which will weaken our surface gradient and
we will see our winds slow during the evening hours.

As we move into the overnight hours we will see an upper level ridge
begin to nose into the region, while at the same time a weak back
door cold front will be struggling to move into the area from the
east. Even if the cold front does push across the mountains, it will
only cool US a few degrees for friday's highs and will have next to
no impacts on the low temperatures Friday morning.

&&

Long term...
upper level ridging develops over the region Friday. A weak
backdoor cool front will move through the forecast area by Friday
morning, decreasing high temperatures only by a few degrees. This
will be a dry frontal passage with light easterly winds. The
first half of the weekend will be beautiful. Dry westerly flow
aloft will remain over the region with mainly clear skies and
light winds. Temperatures increase to a few degrees above average.

The next storm system will begin to take shape on Sunday as it
dives into northern California. Potent winds aloft out ahead of
this shortwave trough will increase moisture and the threat for
showers across much of the County Warning Area. There are still differences on
precipitation amounts and timing between the 00z GFS and European model (ecmwf).
The European model (ecmwf) being the more aggressive solution with showers late
Sunday into early Monday while the GFS remains much drier for the
region. Breezy conditions will develop on Sunday and perhaps
lingering into Monday as a surface low develops to the
north/northeast of the region in response to the upper level
system. The forecast reflects a blend of both models, but leans
towards the European model (ecmwf) based on the strong upper level dynamics with
this system. Temperatures near mountain peaks in the Black Range
and Sacramento Mountains will cool Sunday night into Monday to
near freezing, perhaps leading to very light snow accumulations.
This surface system will drag a cold front through the County Warning Area Monday
night into early Tuesday resulting in chilly temperatures on
Tuesday.

Dry west flow and upper ridging dominates through Wednesday with
clear skies and light winds. The 00z GFS suggests a system to
watch for next Thursday with perhaps light precipitation but
without the support of other guidance this remains in question.

&&

Delizio/Reynolds

Fire weather...
a few showers around the Gila region early Thursday but the main
story will be the breezy westerly surface winds across the entire
County Warning Area. Expecting 15-25 mph across most regions with higher gusts
across the east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains. Dry conditions
develop late Thursday lasting through Saturday night. The next
storm system moves in Sunday into Monday with showers possible
both days. Surface winds will increase as well with breezy
conditions Sunday perhaps lingering into Monday. Drier weather
will develop Tuesday into Wednesday as the storm system moves east
and upper ridging develops over the region with light winds and
cooler temperatures.

Good to very good vent rates expected for Thursday decreasing to
poor Friday and Saturday. Vent rates will increase some Sunday
into Monday with the increase in winds but a return to mainly poor
conditions expected into the middle portions of next week.

Min relative humidities will remain in the 30s and 40s throughout
the period with some increasing values in the 50s Sunday and
Monday with the next batch of moisture moving into the region.

&&

Delizio/Reynolds

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 65 39 62 40 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 64 36 60 37 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 62 35 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 64 34 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 44 26 46 29 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 61 34 56 36 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 54 34 55 35 / 10 0 0 0
Deming 62 34 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 59 35 59 36 / 0 0 0 0
west El Paso Metro 65 41 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 67 34 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 71 37 67 38 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 61 39 58 39 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 68 39 65 39 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 64 35 62 36 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 64 39 61 40 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 62 34 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 64 34 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 63 37 61 37 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 64 34 61 36 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 56 29 56 33 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 53 27 53 30 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 52 27 52 31 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 54 29 52 31 / 10 0 0 0
Hillsboro 59 32 57 34 / 10 0 0 0
spaceport 61 33 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 54 29 57 31 / 20 0 0 0
Hurley 57 32 57 33 / 10 0 0 0
cliff 60 27 62 30 / 10 0 0 0
Mule Creek 55 33 58 35 / 20 0 0 0
Faywood 58 34 57 36 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 62 35 62 36 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 61 34 60 33 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 64 36 62 36 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 58 38 59 39 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

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