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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
309 am MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Synopsis...
tropical moisture will flow into southern New Mexico and West
Texas while an upper level disturbance moves into the region. This
weather pattern will bring a few showers and thunderstorms to the
area today, tonight and again on Tuesday. A cold front will then
move through the Borderland Tuesday night causing dry weather with
cooler below normal temperatures Wednesday. Westerly winds will
produce dry seasonably warm and occasionally breezy conditions
Thursday through Sunday.

&&

Discussion...
weather situation looking somewhat wetter than previously expected
especially for the southern portions of the County Warning Area. A closed low
associated with an upper trough was moving slowly into Southern
California early this morning. Meanwhile satellite images showing
very abundant moisture to the south associated with tropical
disturbance over the southern Gulf of California.

The upper low will move slowly east across Southern California
into northern Arizona today and tonight and then move across
central New Mexico Tuesday. Approach of system will cause
increasing dynamic upward forcing across the County Warning Area as region will
be in right rear quadrant of an 120 kt jet streak today through
Tuesday while differential positive vorticity advection spreads over area when low
approaches. Concurrently a backing more southerly flow ahead of
the disturbance will advect the abundant tropical moisture
northward causing surface dewpoints to rise above 50. This in
turn will support above normal precipitable water values greater
than an inch across the southern zones. With a weakly unstable air
this scenario will generate showers and thunderstorms across
mainly southern portions of the County Warning Area today, tonight and Tuesday.
Given the high moisture amounts now expect possibly heavy rains
over very isolated locations.

Upper wave will move east of the region Tuesday evening followed
by a cold front which will push to the southwest through the County Warning Area
Tuesday night. Easterly winds behind the front will advect cooler
modified Canadian air causing dry weather Wednesday with high
temperatures around 5 degrees below normal.

Deepening westerly winds will sustain transport of dry air and
support warming temperatures Thursday through Saturday. Weak
embedded upper waves will also move across the County Warning Area which may
produce breezy conditions over a few locations. A stronger upper
trough with a closed low could possibly move across The Rockies
Sunday with surface Lee cyclone deepening over northeastern New
Mexico. This may cause stronger winds Sunday and cooler below
normal temperatures Monday after an associated cold front also
moves through the region.

&&

Aviation...valid 14/12z-15/12z.
Mostly scattered-bkn050-100 with a few areas of bkn030 and visibility
2-4sm in showers and thunderstorms mainly south of a kalm-klsb
line. Surface winds mostly from 5-10kts.

&&

Fire weather...
tropical moisture will flow into southern New Mexico and West
Texas while an upper level disturbance moves into the region. This
weather pattern will bring a few showers and thunderstorms to the
region today, tonight and again on Tuesday. A cold front will
then move through the Borderland Tuesday night causing dry weather
with cooler below normal temperatures Wednesday. Westerly winds
will produce dry seasonably warm and occasionally breezy
conditions Thursday through Sunday. Surface winds will be around
5 to 15 mph today through Thursday and around 15 to 25 mph Friday.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 77 58 79 55 / 20 30 30 0
Sierra Blanca 71 55 74 49 / 20 30 30 0
Las Cruces 75 51 75 49 / 20 20 20 0
Alamogordo 77 53 77 50 / 0 0 10 0
Cloudcroft 57 38 57 35 / 10 0 20 0
Truth or Consequences 77 52 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 70 47 70 47 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 75 51 76 50 / 20 20 20 0
Lordsburg 75 51 75 52 / 10 20 10 0
west El Paso Metro 77 58 79 56 / 20 30 40 0
Dell City 77 54 80 49 / 20 20 30 0
Fort Hancock 77 59 81 54 / 20 30 30 0
Loma Linda 72 55 73 51 / 20 20 30 0
Fabens 77 58 79 55 / 20 30 30 0
Santa Teresa 76 54 76 53 / 20 30 30 0
White Sands hq 77 56 77 53 / 20 20 20 0
Jornada range 76 52 75 50 / 10 10 20 0
Hatch 77 51 76 50 / 0 10 0 0
Columbus 76 55 76 53 / 20 30 30 0
Orogrande 76 53 76 50 / 20 20 20 0
Mayhill 67 45 68 39 / 10 0 20 0
Mescalero 66 42 66 39 / 10 0 20 0
Timberon 62 43 63 39 / 10 10 20 0
Winston 72 39 71 38 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 75 48 75 47 / 0 0 0 0
spaceport 76 50 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 71 39 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 72 46 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
cliff 78 42 78 42 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 72 45 73 46 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 73 48 73 48 / 0 10 0 0
Animas 77 51 76 50 / 20 30 20 0
Hachita 75 50 75 50 / 20 30 20 0
Antelope Wells 75 51 76 51 / 30 40 30 0
Cloverdale 71 51 72 53 / 30 40 20 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.

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