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fxus64 kepz 221026 
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
344 am MDT Tue Oct 22 2019

Synopsis...
northwest winds aloft will bring seasonably warm dry weather
across southern New Mexico and West Texas today and Wednesday. A
strong cold front will then move into the region causing cooler
below normal temperatures Thursday and Friday. Westerly winds will
result in dry weather with warming temperatures this coming
weekend.

&&

Discussion...
a subsiding northwest flow aloft will persist across New Mexico
and West Texas today and Wednesday with attendant clear skies.
This pattern will sustain seasonably warm dry weather today and
Wednesday.

A strong and amplifying upper trough will then move through the
Rocky Mountains and into the Southern Plains Wednesday night and
Thursday with a strong associated Canadian cold front pushing to
the southwest through the County Warning Area. East to northeast winds behind the
boundary will advect cooler air into the region with frontal
passage likely occurring during the morning and early afternoon.
Thus daytime high temperatures may occur before noon over at least
areas east of the Rio Grande on Thursday.

One main uncertainty is the model differences. The GFS and NAM
plus the GFS ensemble members all move the primary upper trough
axis to the southeast into the plains and thus away from the County Warning Area.
This places the area in a northwest flow aloft with associated dry
weather. In sharp contrast the European model (ecmwf) drops a 500 mb low center
southward into the County Warning Area Thursday afternoon and evening and keeps
system over southern New Mexico through Friday. This scenario will
produce much cooler temperatures along with lowland rains and
even mountain snows Thursday night and Friday. At this time the
European model (ecmwf) appears to be the outlier so will continue with a cool but
dry forecast Thursday night and Friday.

Flat Ridge aloft will extend over the region by Saturday followed
by a zonal flow Sunday and Monday. This should sustain dry weather
and support a warming trend at least Saturday and Sunday. A weak
cold front may lower temperatures a few degrees Monday.

&&

Aviation...valid 22/12z-23/12z.
VFR conditions with skies skc-sct250. Surface winds generally
less than 10kts.

&&

Fire weather...
northwest winds aloft will bring seasonably warm dry weather
across southern New Mexico and West Texas today and Wednesday with
surface winds around 5 to 15 mph today through Wednesday. A
strong cold front will then move into the region causing cooler
below normal temperatures Thursday and Friday. Temperatures around
5 to 10 degrees below normal Thursday and 10 to 15 degrees below
normal Friday. Westerly winds will result in dry weather with
warming temperatures this coming weekend. Minimum humidity around
10 to 20 percent today and Wednesday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 76 47 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 72 40 77 46 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 74 38 79 46 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 75 40 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 54 30 59 30 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 75 40 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 71 37 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 75 37 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 78 38 78 44 / 0 0 0 0
west El Paso Metro 76 46 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 76 40 81 46 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 79 45 83 50 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 71 44 75 47 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 77 46 81 50 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 75 41 79 46 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 75 44 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 74 35 77 40 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 75 34 79 41 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 75 40 80 47 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 74 40 77 47 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 66 33 70 32 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 64 32 67 33 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 61 32 65 35 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 70 28 72 34 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 74 37 77 43 / 0 0 0 0
spaceport 74 34 77 39 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 73 29 74 37 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 72 35 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
cliff 78 26 77 33 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 77 27 75 35 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 72 37 75 44 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 81 38 81 44 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 77 37 78 44 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 80 39 80 46 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 78 41 76 46 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.

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