Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
551 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019
Aviation... /00z tafs/
will need to monitor the return of higher dew points this evening for
possible fog formation late tonight around San Antonio and possible
Austin. Otherwise look for VFR skies through at least 08z for all
taf sites, and VFR skies for Sunday afternoon. There's a chance that
VFR skies cold hold through the whole period should the shallow
moisture return be behind schedule. There will probably be brief
periods of IFR and MVFR skies over the I-35 corridor in the late
morning hours. Winds through the period should be mostly light, with
only the drt area expected to see winds top 10 knots for any
significant amount of time.
Previous discussion... /issued 246 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019/
Short term (tonight through Sunday night)...
high clouds coming in from central Mexico into west and central Texas
are expected to persist through Sunday. This elevated moisture
arrives to the area thanks to the upper level westerly flow in place
ahead of an upper short-wave disturbance pushing across The Rockies
and the upper level storm system west of southern Baja California.
At lower levels, moisture is forecast to increase tonight into
Sunday as a low level jet sets up across the southern Texas coast.
Low level clouds are expected across most areas on Sunday morning.
However, the upper level short-wave disturbance over The Rockies and
associated frontal boundary are forecast to push across the area on
Sunday afternoon. This is a dry frontal boundary and expect for a
nice warmup ahead of it with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Clouds will be clearing from northwest to southeast as mid to upper
northwest flow takes control over the region.
Long term (monday through saturday)...
a warming trend continues through the middle of next week with highs
in the mid to upper 70s and even lower 80s along the Rio Grande for
Wednesday afternoon. Rain chances return to the area on Wednesday as
an upper level short-wave moves across the Southern Plains. Then, the
next possible round for showers and thunderstorms come on Thursday
into Friday as a cold front approaches south central Texas.
All global models differ in timing and coverage with this frontal
boundary. Therefore, for this forecast package will go with a blend
of all solutions with low chances for rain for later in the week into
the first part of next weekend. All models keep area above the
freezing mark for the morning lows through the long term period.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 44 69 44 71 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 40 69 43 71 47 / 0 - 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 42 69 44 72 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 42 67 41 70 46 / 0 - 0 0 0
del Rio Intl Airport 45 74 45 74 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 41 68 41 70 46 / 0 - 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 44 71 44 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 42 69 43 72 47 / 0 - 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette regional 42 68 44 71 48 / 0 0 - 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 46 70 46 72 50 / 0 - 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 45 71 47 72 50 / 0 0 0 0 0