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fxus64 kewx 051130 
afdewx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
530 am CST Thu Dec 5 2019

Aviation...
LIFR cigs have moved into ksat, kssf and will move into kaus by 12z.
Due to drainage winds becoming calm, visibilities will also drop to LIFR in
the next couple of hours. Since the lower level moisture is shallow,
mixing will erode the stratus/br/fg to VFR by around midday. A period
of LIFR/IFR is possible late evening into overnight as lower levels
remain moist. Then, a cold front moves across bringing VFR. Southerly
winds increase to 7 to 14 kts, decrease to less than 7 kts this
evening, then veers to westerly overnight, and northerly at 10 to 17
kts on Friday.

Meanwhile, kdrt remains VFR with southeasterly winds 5 to 10 kts
today, shifting to northwesterly overnight with the frontal passage.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 347 am CST Thu Dec 5 2019/

Short term (today through Friday night)...
current weather pattern across Texas is characterized by zonal west
to east flow aloft as a short wave trough located over western
Arizona/southeastern California continues its eastward progress. At
the surface generally high pressure remains in place although the
center of the high has continued to drift eastward into the
southeastern US.

Quite a bit of variance exists between our western/Hill Country
areas and the coastal plains this morning. Kerrville is our coldest
location as of 3 am, with a temperature of 44 degrees with a 38
degree dewpoint under clear skies and calm winds. Kenedy is currently
57 degrees with a dewpoint of 56 with calm winds, which has yielded
dense fog. Both Kenedy and Gonzales currently sit at quarter mile
visibilities. Fog is expected to continue to spread north and west
this morning toward the I-35 corridor before mixing out by mid to
late morning. As such, a dense fog advisory has been issued through
9 am for the I-35/37 corridor from Pleasanton to Austin and points
east.

Temperatures this afternoon are expected to warm into the mid 70s for
most locations, which is about 10 degrees warmer than seasonal
normals. Surface moisture will increase throughout the day,
especially for the coastal plains, in response to the approaching
system from the west. This will give US some decent cloud cover today
after several days of cloud free skies.

The Pacific cold front is expected to move through the region
overnight tonight into early Friday morning, and is still expected to
be dry. Winds will shift to northerly behind the front on Friday, and
will be a bit breezy. Skies are expected to quickly clear behind the
front, and Friday should be a pleasant day with afternoon highs
ranging from the mid 60s to the mid 70s under clear skies. Friday
night will be chilly, with lows ranging from the mid 30s across The
Hill Country to the low to mid 40s elsewhere under mostly clear
skies.

Long term (saturday through wednesday)...
Saturday will be another great day for putting up Holiday lights or
any other type of outdoor activity, with highs in the mid to upper
60s under mostly sunny skies. A warming trend begins on Sunday as
winds shift back to southerly. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 70s
with upper 70s by Monday with moisture and cloud cover on the
increase out ahead of the next cold front that is expected to move
through on Monday afternoon/evening. This cold front may bring some
rain, both along/ahead of the front and perhaps also Post frontal
with some overrunning potentially setting up. However, for now only
show 20 to 30 percent chances of rain for Monday evening through
Tuesday, and quantitative precipitation forecast should be fairly marginal. This cold front will
also bring much cooler temperatures. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday
are expected to be in the mid to upper 50s with lows on Wednesday
morning in the 30s with northeasterly winds.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 75 53 68 42 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 53 69 42 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 53 70 42 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 75 49 65 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
del Rio Intl Airport 77 52 71 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 74 51 66 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 75 51 74 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 75 53 70 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette regional 75 56 70 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 74 54 70 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 75 55 72 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
dense fog advisory until 9 am CST this morning for Atascosa-Bastrop-
Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-
Lavaca-Lee-Travis-Wilson.

&&

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