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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1107 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019

Aviation... /06z tafs/
high level clouds will decrease over the next several hours with
light winds being mostly from the northwest but few reaching much above 5 to
7 knots.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 257 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019/

Short term (tonight through Monday night)...
a dry cool front (wind shifter) is moving across the area and
extends northeast from del Rio to Horseshoe Bay to Georgetown area.
This boundary is forecast to push to the southeast into the coastal
plains area late this afternoon/early evening.

A northwest flow aloft is forecast to dominate the region tonight
into Monday morning with mostly clear skies through the period. Some
clouds are expected on Monday morning across the coastal plains area,
otherwise, a sunny day is in store for south central Texas to begin
the work week with highs in the 70s.

Clouds return Monday night mainly across the coastal plains as a
surface high pressure system over the area shifts to the east and
allows increased moisture to be pushed our way.

Long term (tuesday through sunday)...
our next chance for rain comes on Wednesday as an upper level short-
wave moves across West Texas into the southern and Central Plains
area through the period. The Edwards Plateau/Hill Country and areas
along the Escarpment have the better probabilities for rain and even
an isolated thunderstorms.

By Thursday, rain chances increase and that includes the entire area
as an upper level low develops over The Four Corners region and then
pushes to the northeast into the Southern Plains. In addition, a
cold front ahead of the upper level system is forecast to push
across the area Thursday night into Friday.

The combination of these two systems will keep chances for rain
across the area for the latter part of the work week. The
GFS/Canadian solutions are faster with the cold front while the ecm
brings the boundary around 3 to 6 hours later.

Overall, good chance for rain late this week with improving conditions
for next weekend with temperatures slight below normal values,but no
freezing temperatures expected through the extended forecast period.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 45 73 49 78 58 / 0 0 0 0 -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 43 73 46 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 45 73 49 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 -
Burnet Muni Airport 40 70 46 76 56 / 0 0 0 0 -
del Rio Intl Airport 45 74 48 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 20
Georgetown Muni Airport 42 72 46 77 56 / 0 0 0 0 -
Hondo Muni Airport 44 75 48 79 58 / 0 0 0 0 -
San Marcos Muni Airport 43 73 47 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 -
La Grange - Fayette regional 45 72 47 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 -
San Antonio Intl Airport 47 73 52 77 59 / 0 0 0 0 -
Stinson Muni Airport 48 73 52 77 59 / 0 0 0 0 -

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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