Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kewx 212101 
afdewx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
301 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

Short term (tonight through Friday night)...
afternoon surface analysis shows a cold front sliding out of
northwest Texas into the Big Country. Warm air advection east of the
Highway 183 corridor continues to produce light, isolated showers
this afternoon across the coastal plains with a secondary area of
shower and isolated thunderstorm development noted across central
Texas as an upper level speed maxima noses overhead. Slow forward
movement of the front is expected through the overnight hours as the
front remains oriented roughly parallel to southwest flow aloft. The
potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into
the evening hours across The Hill Country and central Texas in the
vicinity of the aforementioned jet streak.

Veering mid and upper level flow as a closed low near The Four
Corners this afternoon slides into the Central Plains on Friday will
nudge the cold front across the region after sunrise Friday. A thin
band of showers developing along the cold front may be preceded by
an early to mid morning round of showers and isolated thunderstorms
closer to the Interstate 10/Highway 90 corridor as a secondary,
weaker upper jet streak slides across south central Texas from Mexico.
Expect the front to push south of the region Friday afternoon with
rain chances shifting south and east with it. Drier and cooler
conditions are expected behind the front with morning temperatures in
the low to mid 60s remaining steady or falling during the afternoon
in The Hill Country and central Texas behind the front. Portions of
the Rio Grande plains are still expected to reach the mid 70s
tomorrow afternoon before frontal passage. Dry and cool conditions
will settle in Friday night with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s
north of the Interstate 10/Highway 90 corridor and upper 40s to low
50s south.

&&

Long term (saturday through thursday)...
a trailing trough axis associated with the Central Plains low clears
region during day Saturday, resulting in dry northwest flow aloft
through Monday. This will keep dry, clear, and mild conditions in
place during this time with highs this weekend in the upper 60s to
mid 70s this weekend warming into the mid 70s to low 80s by Monday. A
shortwave trough lifting into the Southern Plains early next week as
a longwave trough amplifies along the West Coast will send a cold
front into the region on Tuesday. Limited Gulf moisture return ahead
of the front will keep rain chances fairly minimal mid-week, but the
front lifts back north as a warm front by Thanksgiving and have
maintained low rain chances heading into the Holiday as the West
Coast trough begins swing eastward.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 63 64 44 69 44 / 30 60 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 63 64 43 69 42 / 30 60 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 64 66 44 71 43 / 20 50 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 57 60 40 68 41 / 50 60 0 0 0
del Rio Intl Airport 61 74 48 74 48 / 20 10 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 60 61 41 68 41 / 40 60 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 63 71 45 74 45 / 20 40 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 63 65 43 70 42 / 20 60 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette regional 66 71 45 67 43 / 20 50 10 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 64 69 45 72 46 / 20 50 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 65 69 47 72 47 / 10 40 0 0 0

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations