Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kffc 171125
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
725 am EDT Thu Oct 17 2019
Previous discussion... /issued 316 am EDT Thu Oct 17 2019/
Short term /today through Friday/...
quiet weather will continue today through the day Friday. Surface
high pressure will translate eastward across the mid south into the
Ohio Valley from today into tomorrow with continued northwest flow
aloft through the day today. With high pressure in control, expect
mostly sunny skies with a slight northwest breeze this afternoon.
High temperatures today will run several degrees below normal and
range from the 60s in north Georgia to the lower 70s in central
Georgia. Another cool night can be expected with widespread lows in
the 40s and a few upper 30s in the north Georgia mountains. A few
areas of patchy frost will be possible in protected areas in the
northeast Georgia mountains, though the slight breeze will help
limit any widespread frost potential.
Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
two main systems to impact the County Warning Area during the extended portion of
the forecast. First, a low pressure system moving northward in the
Gulf of Mexico should impact the area during the weekend. The second
system is a cold front moving through during the early part of next
week. Both systems will bring good chances for rain to the County Warning Area.
Still some strength and timing differences between the long term
models with respect to the weekend low pressure system. The GFS is a
bit quicker than the European model (ecmwf) and the European model (ecmwf) is quite a bit stronger.
Regardless, both models are progging the low pressure system to
begin impacting southern portions of the County warning forecast area late Friday/early
Saturday and clearing out by late Saturday/very early Sunday
morning. With a little better confidence in timing, have upped the
pops to likely on Saturday and Saturday night. Currently, locales
south of Interstate 20 should receive the best rainfall totals, but
this could change depending upon the track of the low center.
The second system will also bring good chances for rainfall to much
of the area. The front is progged to move through during the day on
Tuesday and the GFS and European model (ecmwf) have very similar timing. With this in
mind, have increased pops to likely for Tuesday. Currently, the
heaviest precip associated with this system is progged across far
Overall, during the weekend and early next week, much of the state
could see one to two inches of rainfall, with some locally higher
VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period with only high
cirrus clouds expected. Northwest winds 6-12 kts will persist through the
day with gusts as high as 15-18 kts possible through the
afternoon. Speeds will taper to 4-6kts after sunset. A wind shift
to the NE is forecast during the 10-12z Friday time frame.
//Atl confidence...12z update...
high confidence on all elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 70 44 72 49 / 0 0 0 20
Atlanta 67 46 71 55 / 0 0 0 20
Blairsville 60 37 68 46 / 0 0 0 5
Cartersville 67 41 73 52 / 0 0 0 10
Columbus 72 48 74 57 / 0 0 5 30
Gainesville 67 44 69 51 / 0 0 0 10
Macon 72 45 74 55 / 0 0 5 30
Rome 68 42 74 51 / 0 0 0 5
Peachtree City 69 44 72 52 / 0 0 0 20
Vidalia 73 49 75 59 / 0 0 5 40