Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kffc 111139
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
639 am EST Wed Dec 11 2019
Previous discussion... /issued 351 am EST Wed Dec 11 2019/
Short term /today through Thursday/...
With precipitation coming to and end across northern Georgia, the
Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled, although some slick
spots may remain through the early morning hours. For the rest of
the area, the last of the showers are expected to clear the local
forecast area by late morning. Drier air is expected to continue to
filter into the area with high pressure building in at the surface.
The rest of today is expected to remain dry with high temperatures
in the 40s across far northern Georgia with 50s and 60s elsewhere.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 20s across the northern
mountains with 30s and lower 40s across the rest of the area.
For Thursday as high pressure slides east towards the coast, a wedge
looks to build into northeastern Georgia. In addition, moisture will
begin to overspread southern portions of the forecast area later on
Thursday associated with a perturbation moving through the
southeasterly flow. Overall, the first half of the day is expected
to remain dry before increasing chances for rain begin in the
afternoon hours from the south. High temperatures for Thursday will
be in the 40s in the mountains with 50s elsewhere, just slightly
below seasonal norms.
Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
A surface cad wedge will be in place in north Georgia Thursday
night, though the parent strong surface high will be quickly
retreating northeastward over the Canadian Maritimes. Widespread
rainfall will be increasing across the region as perturbations in
the southwest flow aloft override the surface wedge. Given the
retreating parent surface high, temperatures continue to trend too
warm for much of a concern for any freezing rain, and surface wet
bulb temperatures look to remain above freezing at this point as
well. For this reason, a cold rain is expected to be predominant
Thursday night into Friday morning with chances for wintry
precipitation continuing to diminish.
Friday will be a wet day as the trough axis pushes through the
Tennessee Valley and a surface low develops, though models disagree
on exact placement of said low. Assuming a track of developing
surface low across south Georgia/north FL, left out mention of thunder
given instability will remain largely south of the County Warning Area. Lingering
showers will remain possible Saturday, though these will largely
taper by late Saturday into Saturday night. Widespread rainfall
totals ranging from an inch to over half an inch can be expected
from Thursday night through Saturday.
A mild and dry Sunday can be expected Sunday amid surface high
pressure and zonal flow aloft. The next developing system over the
Southern Plains will approach the forecast area by late Monday into
Tuesday bringing another marked increase in rain chances. Cool and
dry air looks to filter back in behind this cold front by next
Mainly VFR/sky clear conditions are expected across the area as the
back edge of a mid/high level cloud shield exits the area. Winds
are northwest around 6-12kts with gusts to around 20kts. Winds should
weaken to less than 10kts overnight and shift to the NE around
//Atl confidence...12z update...
high confidence on all elements
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 58 34 51 36 / 10 5 20 80
Atlanta 54 36 51 40 / 10 5 20 80
Blairsville 49 28 47 35 / 10 5 10 70
Cartersville 52 32 52 38 / 5 5 10 70
Columbus 59 39 54 42 / 10 5 30 80
Gainesville 55 34 49 36 / 10 5 20 80
Macon 59 36 53 40 / 20 5 30 80
Rome 51 30 53 39 / 5 5 10 60
Peachtree City 56 34 53 39 / 10 5 20 80
Vidalia 60 41 56 45 / 20 10 30 60