Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kffc 231610
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
1210 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019
have only made minor updates to the short term grids. Already
seeing winds at some locations shift to the NE, so have massaged
hourly wind grids to reflect this shift. Otherwise, warming trends
are on track and skies remain mostly clear. No additional updates
are planned until the afternoon forecast package is issued.
Previous discussion... /issued 736 am EDT Wed Oct 23 2019/
Previous discussion... /issued 436 am EDT Wed Oct 23 2019/
Short term /today through Thursday/...
Benign weather is expected through the short term periods. High
pressure will build into the area through this afternoon and
evening, shifting east of the area by the end of the period. The
upper level flow will become southwest tomorrow as a long wave
trough begins to deepen as it moves off the Rocky Mountains into the
Southern Plains. Dry weather, with mostly clear skies will prevail.
Afternoon highs will be in the upper-60s to mid 70s with overnight
lows dropping into the 40s.
Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
GFS solution continues to trend more toward the Euro with the
next upper trough becoming more cutoff west of the region and thus
allowing for a less progressive attendant frontal system and
prolonged higher pop fcst influencing the area Friday into this
weekend. Have likely pops for portions of north Georgia Fri/Sat with
chance elsewhere. Some slight discrepancies exist on how far
eastward the associated enhanced moisture field advects early next
week. Given this and the possible continued influence of a stalled
sfc boundary, have kept chance pops across the area. Progged
instability will allow for at least a slight chance of
thunderstorms mainly across central Georgia for Saturday through
While temps should run below norms for Friday, the rest of the
period should have Max values within a few degrees of climo and
min values above climo given the increased moisture and resultant
limited diurnal range.
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with clear to
mostly clear skies. Northwest winds will prevail through 00z at
5-10kts, winds will diminish to light and variable before shifting
to the northeast at 5kts or less overnight into tomorrow as winds
continue to shift further to the east.
//Atl confidence...12z update...
high confidence all elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 71 44 71 52 / 0 0 0 10
Atlanta 69 46 70 53 / 0 0 0 20
Blairsville 63 40 66 46 / 0 0 0 10
Cartersville 69 44 71 51 / 0 0 0 20
Columbus 73 48 74 59 / 0 0 0 30
Gainesville 68 45 68 51 / 0 0 0 10
Macon 73 46 74 57 / 0 0 5 20
Rome 70 41 72 52 / 0 0 0 10
Peachtree City 70 44 71 54 / 0 0 0 30
Vidalia 74 51 76 60 / 0 0 10 20