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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
248 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019



Short term /tonight through Wednesday night/...

Current radar loop shows approaching frontal system pushing showers
across the region. This frontal system is expected to continue
pushing east through Wednesday afternoon and finally clear the area
Wed night. As this front moves through tonight temps are expected to
fall and we may see some freezing or frozen precipitation along the
back side of the system. Currently we are seeing temps across north Georgia
in the upper 30s to near 40 as this rain moves in. Temps are
beginning to fall and will continue to through daybreak into the
lower to middle 30s. The only locations that will see temps low
enough for a possible rain/snow mix or even all snow will be mainly
across north Georgia especially the northwest Georgia mountains. These areas will see a
rain/snow mix before a possible brief transition to all snow on the
backside of the system. Overall, accumulations are expected to be
light, (a half and inch or less in most locations) so little to no
impacts are expected.

Through the afternoon on Wednesday, precipitation is expected to
come to an end as drier air moves into the area and high pressure
filters in at the surface. As a result, temperatures on Wednesday
are expected to be close to but just slightly below seasonal norms,
with temps in the 40s across far northern Georgia with 50s across
the rest of the area. Wed night lows are expected to get down into
the upper 20s across north Georgia and near 40 across central.

01



Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/...

No significant changes made to the general trends through the
extended forecast period. Period starts out dry early Thursday, but
precipitation begins spreading northeast across the area by late in
the day as the next in a series of short waves approaches in the
active, progressive pattern across the U.S. Models continue to
slowly trend warmer for the onset of the precipitation associated
with this system. Model surface wet bulb temperatures at or above 32
degrees across the entire area by 03-09z. May still see some wintry
mix at the onset across the northeast, but it is not looking like we
are likely to see any significant accumulations. Some lingering
precipitation into early Saturday with a brief break Saturday night
into Sunday before the next system sweeps into the area
Monday/Tuesday.

20



&&

Previous discussion... /issued issued by National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama/

Previous discussion... /issued 648 am EST Tue Dec 10 2019/

Previous discussion... /issued 437 am EST Tue Dec 10 2019/

Short term /today through Wednesday/...
a cold front approaching the local forecast area today will bring
showers and the potential for an isolated thunderstorm. Current
radar imagery is showing showers moving across portions of northern
Georgia with some lighter showers moving across the Atlanta Metro
area. Through the rest of the day today, precipitation ahead of the
front is expected to expand southward and eastward, moving southeast
across the area. Although instability is low with this system, an
isolated thunderstorm still isn't out of the question but no severe
weather is anticipated. The actual front looks to enter northwestern
Georgia later this morning, sweeping southeast through the afternoon
hours. Behind the front, winds will turn northwest bringing colder
temperatures to the area.

Overnight tonight into Wednesday morning, just before precipitation
is expected to end, temperatures will start to fall into the 30s
across portions of far northern Georgia. These areas may see a
rain/snow mix before a brief transition from rain to snow on the
backside of the front. Overall, accumulations are expected to be
light, generally less than an inch, with the best chances across the
highest elevations, so little to no impacts are expected. With
southwesterly flow ahead of the front, highs today are expected to
be fairly warm in the 50s in the mountains with 60s and 70s across
the rest of north and central Georgia, around 5 to 20 degrees above
average. Overnight low temperatures across northern and western
Georgia will be dropping into the 30s with 40s expected across the
rest of the area.

Through the afternoon on Wednesday, precipitation is expected to
come to an end as drier air moves into the area and high pressure
filters in at the surface. As a result, temperatures on Wednesday
are expected to be close to but just slightly below seasonal norms,
with temps in the 40s across far northern Georgia with 50s across
the rest of the area.

Reaves

Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
extended models in generally good agreement through the majority
of the period as short wave impacts the area. The long term
period begins with drying conditions behind aforementioned cold
front, followed quickly by increasing moisture ahead of the next
weather-maker.

Forecast models have warmed slightly since yesterday's runs, but
still show a lingering cold enough airmass over northeast Georgia
to continue mention of rain or snow, or a mix in the grids.
Temperatures warm nicely through the day Friday, and any
accumulations are not expected to last. Winds pick up with this
system, and could meet critical advisory thresholds in the higher
elevations.

Wrap around moisture could stick around over far northeast
Georgia through mid-weekend, but otherwise, expect a nice weekend.
An active weather pattern remains in place into next week, with
another wetting rain forecast to impact the area Monday and
Tuesday.

31

Aviation...
18z update...
showers along the main line have become more scattered with dry
air behind the front. With winds from the northwest...not expecting an
increase in moisture...so left IFR ceilings at all taf sites in
tempo except katl and kryy where the latter is expected to clear
to MVFR ceilings shortly. Light showers will move across the area
this afternoon through the night...though uncertainty remains on how
much moisture remains for any MVFR or IFR conditions with these
showers.

//Atl confidence...18z update...
low to medium confidence on all elements

99

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 42 57 35 52 / 80 40 10 10
Atlanta 37 53 36 51 / 80 30 10 20
Blairsville 30 47 29 48 / 90 20 5 10
Cartersville 32 50 33 53 / 80 20 5 10
Columbus 42 58 40 54 / 70 40 20 30
Gainesville 38 54 35 50 / 80 20 5 10
Macon 44 59 38 53 / 60 40 20 20
Rome 31 50 30 54 / 90 10 5 10
Peachtree City 37 55 35 53 / 80 40 10 20
Vidalia 51 59 42 57 / 50 30 20 20

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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