Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kffc 140539
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
139 am EDT Mon Oct 14 2019
Previous discussion... /issued 310 PM EDT sun Oct 13 2019/
Short term /tonight through Monday night/...
Weak/nearly stationary frontal boundary currently draped from near
LaGrange to Covington to Athens. Temperatures to the north of this
boundary have been slow to recover due to the spotty rain showers
and low clouds. Temps range from the lower 60s over portions of
north Georgia to mid/upr 80s across much of central Georgia.
Upstream energy/shortwave embedded within westerly flow will
traverse the area tonight. Rain already beginning to enter west-
central Georgia. Best forcing expected to exist along and south of I-20
and I-85 where highest pops exist. Could see a storm or two in the
"warm sector" this evening, but not expecting any significant
impacts. Much needed rainfall through tonight will range from 1/10
to 1/2 inch.
Short wave energy quickly moves east of the area Monday morning with drier
conditions expected briefly ahead of next system that is expected to
affect the area late Monday night into Tuesday. This storm system is
looking more organized and could bring more appreciable rainfall
(and storms) to the area.
Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
Old frontal boundary remains situated across central Georgia on Tuesday.
Moisture will continue to pool along the boundary as stronger mid
level energy interacts with the front. A cold front is still on
track for Wednesday, with cooler temps and a drier airmass expected
behind the boundary. High pressure will settle over the area through
the end of the week, but should move offshore over the weekend as a
second strong looking frontal system approaches.
Most of the precipitation will fall in the Tuesday - Wednesday time
frame. The axis of heavier rainfall will roughly be along a Columbus
to Macon to Swainsboro line. Wednesday and Thursday nights will be a
period of at or just below normal temperatures.
No major changes to the forecast were needed.
showers have now shifted south of atl/ahn sites and will continue
to affect mcn/csg through the next couple of hours before coming
to an end for these areas. Cigs will be a bit of a mixed bag
through 12z with largely VFR punctuated by areas of MVFR and
patchy IFR. Thereafter, expect a clearing trend and mostly clear
skies today before high clouds begin to increase quickly by 06z
Tuesday. Winds will remain west to northwest 3-5 kts before shifting to
the NE/east after 06z Tuesday.
//Atl confidence...06z update...
medium confidence on cigs this morning.
High confidence on other elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 81 57 71 62 / 5 20 80 70
Atlanta 78 61 71 63 / 5 30 80 70
Blairsville 74 50 69 56 / 0 5 60 70
Cartersville 78 56 71 61 / 0 20 80 70
Columbus 82 66 76 67 / 20 70 90 80
Gainesville 77 57 69 60 / 0 10 70 70
Macon 82 63 76 65 / 20 60 90 80
Rome 79 55 71 60 / 0 10 70 70
Peachtree City 79 60 71 63 / 5 50 80 70
Vidalia 83 67 79 69 / 20 40 90 70