Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kffc 181857
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
257 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019
Short term /tonight through Saturday night/...
Its been a nice day today but things are definitely going to change
over the next 12-24 hours. Tropical storm Nestor, currently located
in the central Gulf of Mexico, is expected to continue moving
northeastward through Sunday morning. The models continue to show
some minor differences in speed and location of the system, but
overall it is expected to move northeast fairly quickly making
landfall along the Florida Panhandle just before daybreak Sat morning.
Rain is already beginning to push onshore the la/MS/al/FL coast and
is expected to continue moving northward over night. This system
will move into south Georgia Sat morning and into central Georgia Sat
afternoon/evening. It will continue moving NE into the Carolinas Sat
night into Sunday morning. This is a fairly weak tropical storm and
is not expected to cause any major damage to the area. The biggest
concern is because we are in a drought right...and with the
increased winds and rain we will see some trees falling across
central Georgia. Winds will increase into the 20 to 25 mph range with
gust to 35 mph Sat afternoon. The models are also showing pws
increasing to the 2+ inch mark, so some periods of heavy rain will
be possible. Rainfall totals from early Saturday through early
Sunday are around a half inch to 1 inch for areas north of the
Interstate 85 corridor...to 1 to 2.5 inches for areas south of that
line. Some locally higher amounts will be possible especially across
east central portions of the state.
High temperatures are expected to remain well below seasonal norms,
with highs in the 60s and lower 70s and some 50s across the
mountains and northeastern Georgia. Low temps tonight and Saturday
night will be in the 40s and 50s.
Long term /Sunday through Friday/...
General forecast trends remain unchanged through the extended
forecast period as medium-range models continue to show fairly good
agreement through next week. Dry and mild to start the period Sunday
into early Monday as southwesterly upper-level flow amplifies ahead
of the next upper trough digging into the High Plains. Precipitation
chances return by Monday afternoon ahead of another relatively sharp
cold front, peaking Monday night into early Tuesday as the front
sweeps through. Instability still looks to be somewhat limited, but
moderate to strong forcing and ample shear keeps at least a small
chance for severe thunderstorms in the picture. Air mass behind the
cold front is not looking particularly cold as the upper flow
quickly turns zonal through the middle of the upcoming workweek.
Next system digging into the middle of the country as we head into
the end of the week with precipitation chances once again
VFR conditions to start this taf set with rain and IFR conditions to
end. Ceilings will fall overnight with MVFR ceilings expected by
daybreak Sat morning. The ceilings will continue to fall into the IFR
range by 15z-17z Sat. Will also begin to see rain moving into the atl
area by daybreak as well. Expecting the IFR ceilings and precip to
continue through 00z Sunday. Winds are mainly out of the east in the
07-12kt range right now. The winds are expected to turn more
northeasterly over night and into Sat with speeds increasing into the
14-18kt range with gust to 25kt. Vsbys will start in the VFR range
but looking for some MVFR vsbys by 15-17z Sat. They should stay in
the MVFR range through 00z sun.
//Atl confidence...18z update...
Confidence is medium to high on all elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 50 57 52 77 / 60 90 80 10
Atlanta 52 58 54 76 / 70 90 70 10
Blairsville 45 57 50 73 / 40 90 80 10
Cartersville 51 60 52 77 / 60 90 70 10
Columbus 59 67 55 79 / 80 90 50 5
Gainesville 50 56 53 75 / 50 90 80 10
Macon 57 66 54 79 / 80 90 70 10
Rome 52 61 52 78 / 50 90 70 10
Peachtree City 53 60 53 78 / 80 90 70 10
Vidalia 61 75 60 77 / 80 90 80 10
Wind Advisory from 8 am Saturday to midnight EDT Saturday night
for the following zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...