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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1257 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

Update...
issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

Clear to mostly clear skies across eastern North Dakota and
northwest Minnesota today leading to one of our warmest days in
over a week. Some clouds will move into parts of the Devils Lake
basin this afternoon and evening. This combined with the remaining
snow pack over this area will lead to the coolest temperatures in
the state. This will still be warm enough in the mid to upper 40s
to help melt remaining snow.

&&

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 340 am CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

Cloud cover continues moving off to the east this morning as
indicated on satellite imagery with clear skies across a large
portion of the County Warning Area. Temperatures have fallen into the lower to
middle 30s across the area with southeast winds generally in the 5
to 10 mph range.

Ridging prevails today ahead of an approaching shortwave that will
traverse the region late Friday. Temperatures respond accordingly
with widespread highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s today and even
warmer highs in the 50s to lower 60s on Friday. Dry weather is
expected both days with an increase in rain chances late Friday
night.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 340 am CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

Friday night-Saturday night: quick shortwave trough passage still
expected Friday night which could bring light rain showers mainly in
our northern County Warning Area. Very little precip though where rain occurs, and
it's still possible non-measurable rain/virga could be favored due
to weaker moisture advection/drier air mass. SW flow in place should
still support mild/seasonal temps for our County Warning Area with very little
changing from an air mass stand-point.

Sunday-monday: still tracking potential closed upper developing
towards our County Warning Area and ensembles/deterministic still showing decent
agreement on track/timing placing deformation zone within our County Warning Area.
Most precip with this system favoring Sun afternoon through Monday
with west to east progression (starting and ending in eastern ND
first). There is uncertainty on timing of most intense south to
north banding which creates higher spread on where 1" amounts may be
and this is reflected in larger spread of gefs quantitative precipitation forecast plumes within Red
River valley. Current trend in consensus means is to have better
potential for 0.5-0.75 from central to southern rrv, and best
potential for 1"+ further east towards Mississippi River basin in
our eastern County Warning Area. Still, slower timing could allow this to linger
longer.

Wetbulb profiles are still warm enough that rain should be favored
with brief wintry changeover at most. Other complications is the
strong bl winds to develop with upper low Sunday night through
Monday, with bl winds and strong low level jet possibly supportive of
potential 50+ mph gusts within Red River and west Monday. Increases made
to winds to reflect this potential.

Tuesday-thursday: less confidence in details during these periods
with larger 500 mb height spread/run-run variance in
ensembles/deterministic guidance regarding storm track/evolution.
General trend though should be towards lower heights in either
northwest or progressive westerly flow which could support
additional trough passages over the northern plains and additional
precip chances (maybe snow). Stronger support in ensembles for below
normal air mass staying in place through these periods, so don't
expect much of a temp recovery during our extended periods once the
larger system passes early in the week.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

VFR conditions continue at all terminals this afternoon into
tonight. Some low level wind shear remains possible this evening with the low level wind shear being
the main risk today. Tomorrow expect some increased winds with
gusts above 15 knots and lower ceilings leading to MVFR to
occasional IFR conditions in the morning.

&&

Hydrology...
issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Minor to moderate flooding is continuing along the mainstem Red
River except at Oslo, which has achieved major stage, and will
remain there with a lengthy broad crest starting on Thu. River
levels on the Minnesota side are heading down, with many areas
proximal to the southern valley only featuring notices for higher
levels of water.

A different story is persisting along the ND tributaries to the Red
River of the north. We are still waiting for the full impact of
remaining snowmelt over the Devils Lake basin and points to the
north and east. Conditions downstream of Lake Ashtabula will be
dependent on this and operations at baldhill dam. Currently, notices
of high water exist from Valley City through Lisbon (with rises here
looking to threaten minor flood stage), with minor to moderate
flooding occurring along the lower Sheyenne closer to Fargo.

Our forecast still includes good short term news : drier for a nice
run starting now, with moderating temperatures into the 50s with
some 60s by late week. A little more unsettled though, with the
potential for a precipitation event for sun into Mon.

&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

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