Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1133 am CST Mon Nov 11 2019
issued at 1002 am CST Mon Nov 11 2019
No major forecast changes needed. Temperatures are starting to
warm across the region with web cams showing developing cumulus
across portions of northwest Minnesota - as expected by morning hi-res
ensembles. Satellite imagery shows lake effect snow continuing for
the southeast side of Lake of The Woods. This is expected to
continue into the afternoon hours with additional snow
accumulations of one to two inches possible.
Update issued at 656 am CST Mon Nov 11 2019
Wind chills ranging from 5 to 20 below zero this morning with
winds at 5 to 15mph and temps in the minus 7f in northwest Minnesota to 8f
above under the clouds in the southern valley. Light snow off of
the Lake of The Woods bringing reduced visibilities down to a mile
occasionally this morning. Localized travel impacts area expected
around Baudette as snow will persist into the afternoon.
Short term...(today through tuesday)
issued at 325 am CST Mon Nov 11 2019
Impacts for the short term will be from Arctic surface high pressure
which has settled over the region. Single digits above and below
zero in areas where clouds have cleared combined with 5 to 15mph
winds to produce wind chills this morning as cold as minus 20
across the north. In the south clouds are lingering with temps
holding around 10 keeping wind chills around 0. Snow continues
down stream of the Lake of The Woods near Baudette and will
continue to persist until winds weaken late this afternoon as surface
high pressure moves closer albeit passing south of the forecast area.
Additional accumulation of an inch or two is possible. Also
expecting some mid day cumulus to form with flurries as temps
struggle to rise to highs in the upper single digits and low
This evening surface ridge axis slides across the area with winds
decoupling should see a fast temp drop off in the valley and east
with negative readings possible before midnight. As south winds
increase and mixing slowly spreads east temps will steady off and
possibly rise especially in the valley and west for the overnight.
As the pressure gradient increases with departing surface high winds
will continue to increase into the daytime Tuesday with 20 to
25mph south to southeasterly direction. Will see temps slowly rise
as Arctic air is slowly modified some late with late afternoon or
evening. Highs in the low 20s in the valley and east ND and teens in
the Minnesota pines are expected.
Long term...(tuesday night through sunday)
issued at 325 am CST Mon Nov 11 2019
On Wednesday, chances for snow develop as a weak shortwave trough
aloft progresses southeast through the northern plains amidst
northwest flow aloft. Higher model spread in the precise track of
the best forcing leads to low confidence regarding where the highest
chances for precipitation will reside, but it looks likely that the
forecast area will remain on the cold (north) side of this system.
This will support sub-freezing temperatures at the surface and
aloft, resulting in snow as the dominant precipitation type. There
is good overall agreement in fairly weak forcing and light quantitative precipitation forecast
(likely <0.10 inches) with this system, suggesting impacted
locations will see less than an inch or two of snow on Wednesday.
Weak cold air advection and northerly flow behind this system leaves
a cold Wednesday night under surface high pressure, but this will be
For Thursday through the upcoming weekend, the main story is good
model agreement in a warmer weather pattern developing. Our
persistent northwest flow pattern yields to zonal flow and higher
heights build in with a split jet aloft. This will bring
temperatures closer to seasonal values for this time of year with
daytime highs ranging from the mid 20s to near 40 degrees and
overnight lows in the teens and 20s. Thursday and Friday look to be
mainly dry, but rain/snow chances develop over a period during
weekend as a progressive upper wave propagates through the Canadian
prairie and northern plains. Low confidence in any details with this
weekend system, but at this point it does not look to bring
impactful weather to the region.
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1128 am CST Mon Nov 11 2019
Although VFR conditions prevail across eastern ND, MVFR and
pockets of IFR conditions are ongoing across northwest Minnesota as cloud
cover begins to increase. This trend of increasing cloud cover to
the west with ceilings between 2.5-5 kft will continue through the
mid afternoon hours. Occasional flurries can't be ruled out for
kbji and ktvf, but no accumulating snowfall is expected.
Skies will gradually begin clearing this evening with mostly high
clouds during the overnight hours and into Tuesday morning.
Northwest winds this afternoon will shift to southerly winds by
18 UTC Tuesday with occasional wind gusts up to 20 knots possible.