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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1242 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

issued at 1238 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

Skies continue to be mostly clear with temperatures rising into
the low to mid 30s over snowpack and mid 30 to around 40 without
snowpack. Some breezy winds are possible this afternoon and
evening across eastern North Dakota with gusts as high as around
28 mph.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 331 am CST Fri Nov 22 2019

High pressure has moved south of the area located in northwest Iowa at
09z. Increasing south-southwest winds today and warmer air at the
925/850 mb layer will advect eastward with westerly winds in that
layer. Surface winds will tend to stay more south-southwest most
areas, though a bit more westerly component in higher terrain in
west of the Red River valley. Not all the warmth from 925 mb will
get to the surface today due to a colder layer near the surface
because of snow cover over NE ND and northwest Minnesota. But also looking at
full sun, though weak this time of year. Net result will be temps
this aftn in the lower to middle 30s snow areas to upper 30s/40 in
non-snow areas in southeast ND/wc Minnesota. Suspect the higher terrain areas
along the Escarpment from Walhalla to west of Grand Forks will be
warmer than the immediate Red River valley.

Temps will not fall off a lot tonight, and going fcst of lows in
the 20s may not occur til later at night as 925 mb temps will
remain mild thru 06z. Some increase in cirrus or mid clouds
expected overnight, mainly NE ND/northwest Minnesota as a short wave moves
southeast thru S Manitoba overnight.

Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 331 am CST Fri Nov 22 2019

Saturday will see high temps above freezing once again with highs
in the 35-40 range. More cloud cover due to increased cirrus, but
winds will turn westerly which is a warm wind in the Red River

Northwest flow aloft prevails Sunday and Monday. Looking at a 500 mb
shortwave moving through the region Sunday morning, with a clipper
later Sunday evening. The temperature profile Sunday afternoon
supports mixed precipitation types, with rain across portions of the
region to the south of Highway 200 and a mix of rain and snow to the
north. As the evening progresses, we will see the rain/snow line
move southward, with most areas seeing a chance for light snow
during the overnight hours. Quantitative precipitation forecast during the Sunday/Monday period
remains light and significant accumulations are not expected.

A chance for light snow remains for the Lake of The Woods region
through much of the day on Tuesday. Winds aloft become westerly and
eventually southwesterly heading into Wednesday. A rather deep 500 mb
low will be moving into the Pacific northwest Wednesday evening,
progressing east and southeast as we head into Thursday. At this
point in the forecast, we see a higher degree of disagreement
between the various deterministic models and the beginnings of wider
variations in the ensemble forecasts. As such, confidence in
specific solutions remain low, however, there is a signal for more
active winter weather as this upper low influences the flow pattern.
An increased chance for snow enters the forecast late next week,
persisting into the weekend.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1238 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

VFR conditions under mostly clear skies to continue at all
terminals for this taf period. The main impact will be some breezy
winds this afternoon into tonight. Winds could gust into the 25
knot range at times during this period.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


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