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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1206 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

Update...
issued at 1205 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

The only changes made to the forecast were sky and flurry
coverage. For sky grids, the consensus is for most areas to
remain overcast into the evening. Under cloudy skies, scattered
flurries are possible.

Update issued at 1000 am CST Wed Nov 13 2019

The light snow has exited the southeast forecast area. There are actually a
few breaks of sun scattered about, but a batch of lower clouds is
still located over the northern Red River valley. This batch of
lower clouds will drop southeast through the day, keeping more
clouds along and east of the valley. Flurries are also possible
under the thicker clouds today.

Update issued at 652 am CST Wed Nov 13 2019

Light snow is now confined areas south of a Wahpeton to Fergus
Falls to Wadena line. Will see it continue to slide south and
should move out of the area by 10am. Flurries set for the
afternoon mainly across northwest Minnesota today.

&&

Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 320 am CST Wed Nov 13 2019

A weak short is quickly moving over the area this morning with int
the mean 500mb northwesterly flow aloft. This feature is bringing
some light snow to areas south of Highway 200 with surface obs generally
showing 2 to 4 mile visibility. As the weak 500mb q-vector
divergence moves south snow will move south of the South Dakota/ND line by
mid morning. Areas that saw a few tenths of accumulation could
have some localized travel issues during the commute this morning.

Today temps will be fairly steady as northwest winds and 925mb cold air
advection offset the normal diurnal curve. Will see highs in the
low to mid 20s with some afternoon flurries possible. A quick
temp fall is forecast after sunset with lows in the single digits
for most. Warm air advection with favorable SW winds at the surface will help
temps Thursday afternoon rise into the 30s even with increased
cloud cover.

Long term...(thursday night through tuesday)
issued at 320 am CST Wed Nov 13 2019

A warmer period with temperatures near to above average. Daytime
highs this next weekend into early next week may get into the 40s as
warmer air moves into the region. With this warmer air though comes
chances for more wintry precipitation.

Thursday night and Friday... warm air advection and upper level
height rises will lead to a milder and quieter pattern these period.
The passage of a weak cold front Friday could keep temperatures
cooler with a chance for some snow flurries.

Saturday and Sunday... a surface low is expected to move across the
Canadian prairies this weekend as a short wave trough moves into the
area. Some increased moisture will be present based on naefs
percentile precipitable water being above the 90th percentile and
gefs members having quantitative precipitation forecast. With the main forcing more likely to be
over southern Canada the best chances for precipitation will be
near the international border.

Forecast model soundings do suggest that there will be a warm layer
aloft while the lower levels remain below freezing. This suggests
the chance for some mixed(snow/sleet/freezing rain) precipitation
which could have an impact on travel this weekend. Confidence is
still low on perception type at this point due to spread in model
timing and differing pattern evolution in both deterministic and
ensemble guidance.

Monday to Wednesday... another system is expected to impact the
northern plains early next week. Ensemble spread remains high so
there is still much uncertainty in what impacts could occur. What
does appear likely is a continuation of the milder temperatures with
near to above average temperatures and a large scale signal for
another system moving across the northern plains or Canadian
prairies.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1205 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

Despite far currently being in VFR, MVFR conditions are expected
at bji, tvf, far, and gfk until shortly after the midnight hour.
Dvl can expect similar ceilings with clearing near 03z or so.
Winds will continue to be gusty at all sites except for bji with
wind decreases near sunset. Gfk and tvf could also see ceilings
redevelop by tomorrow morning but remain in the VFR range.



&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

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