Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kfgz 142113
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
213 PM MST Mon Oct 14 2019
Synopsis...expect seasonably warm and dry weather for the work
week. Southwest breezes will decrease this evening, with weaker
winds Tuesday and Wednesday. Gusty winds will likely return
Thursday into the weekend.
Discussion...a weak shortwave trough is approaching the state
this afternoon with gusty southwest winds. Some limited low-level
moisture has been pulled northward ahead of the trough, resulting
in scattered cumulus development over much of the region. Very
little if any instability is present, so the most we should see
out of these would be isolated virga or a sprinkle through late
Tuesday through Wednesday - high pressure is forecast to build
over the state. Mostly clear skies and daytime temperatures 4 to 9
degrees warmer than average for mid October are in store. Winds
will be light.
Thursday through Friday - the next stronger trough brushes by to
our north. Stronger southwest winds will develop each afternoon,
with slightly cooler temperatures. Dry conditions are expected to
Saturday through Sunday - models continue to show uncertainty
regarding the track of a strong western US trough. Most of the
latest guidance indicates the trough passing north of Arizona,
with cooler temperatures and gusty west to northwest winds the
main expected impact for northern Arizona. We kept the forecast
dry for now based on the latest guidance, but this bears watching
over the next few days.
Aviation...for the 00z package...VFR conditions will continue for
the next 24 hours. Southwest at 10-20 kts this afternoon will weaken
to light and variable winds again overnight. Light winds are
expected at most taf sites on Tuesday. Aviation discussion not
updated for taf amendments.
Fire weather...expect continued dry conditions, with warm daytime
temperatures and cool nights through Tuesday. Light winds are
expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Thursday through Saturday...mild daytime temperatures and low
relative humidity will continue. Winds will increase from the
southwest Thursday through the weekend.