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fxus63 kfsd 131951 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls South Dakota
251 PM CDT sun Oct 13 2019

Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 245 PM CDT sun Oct 13 2019

Pronounced upper level low continues to lift away with our region
remaining on the far southeast periphery of the cloud shield and
within the breezier west to northwesterly winds. Temperatures have
rebounded some over yesterday's values into the upper 30s and 40s
where cloud cover remains and around 50 where sunshine has been
more persistent.

Clouds begin to thin overnight, and along with light winds, sref
probabilities and low level bl profiles would suggest some potential
for patchy fog or low stratus late tonight into Monday. Temperatures
will likely bottom out in the mid to upper 20s.

Broad ridging sets in for Monday and will provide for dry
conditions, although with a filter of upper level clouds.
Temperatures will also moderate back into the 50s and 60s with
breezy southerly surface winds.

Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 245 PM CDT sun Oct 13 2019

Quick moving shortwave and attendant cold front swings through
Monday night into Tuesday. With fairly Stout caa, expect gusty winds
and thus have trended these values upwards over the blended
guidance. Front looks to mainly come thru dry although may
eventually need to add some flurry or sprinkle mention with
favorable moisture/temperature profiles aloft in the Post frontal
stratus, particularly across SW Minnesota. Temperatures will be set back
in to the 40s to near 50 (although feeling much cooler than that).

Upper level ridge amplifies to our west by mid week with the ridge
axis slowly migrating eastward with time. This will start another
period of dry weather and with southerly surface winds and warming
mid level temps, will see warming temperatures by late in the work
week. Upper 50s and 60s should be fairly common by Thursday and

Trough digs into the intermountain west by the weekend and sets up
our region under an increasingly southwest flow regime aloft. Latest
GFS has trended toward the overnight European model (ecmwf) with a quicker
solution with the upper level energy while the Canadian buries
things across the desert SW for a period as a cut off low. All
this to say, model details still vary but pattern would suggest a
return to a more active period by later in the weekend and early
next week. Late week temperatures will ultimately depend on system
timing and evolution but currently look to run near seasonal


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1155 am CDT sun Oct 13 2019

MVFR ceilings from near khon to kfsd and points north and east
will continue to become more fracture thru the afternoon, staying
most persistent across SW Minnesota. Winds will also stay on the breezy
side out of the northwest gusting between 15 and 25 kts. By late
tonight and early Monday, forecast soundings and sref
probabilities suggest a potential for patchy fog or low status
given lighter winds, particularly at khon. Included some non-
restrictive mention for now and will monitor trends for future taf


Fsd watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.

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