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000 
FXUS63 KFSD 142321
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
521 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 306 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Quiet conditions across the region with surface high pressure 
sinking off to the south and east. With a west to occasionally 
southwest wind, temperatures west of I-29 have rebounded into the
40s to lower 50s. 

Overnight forecast challenge will be the extent of low cloud 
cover/fog across the area. Models in fairly good agreement with 
trapping a layer of moister within the BL inversion, although differ 
in how to manifest this moisture. Have modified cloud cover to 
reflect this, with some fog mention north of I-90 where SREF 
probabilities are highest. Temperatures largely in the mid to upper 
20s expected.

Surface pressure gradient tightens Friday with an increased 
southerly wind ushering in more seasonable temperatures. Cloud cover 
may hold temperatures back across the north and east but otherwise 
mid 40s to to lower 50s expected. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 306 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Quiet conditions continue into the early part of the weekend. We'll 
likely see a (relatively speaking) warm start to Saturday and have 
continued trends of keeping overnight lows in the upper half of 
guidance. Surface front will approach our western counties by late 
afternoon with 40s and lower 50s ahead of it for most of our area.

Previously mentioned front and associated shortwave will bring our 
next chance of precipitation Saturday night into early Sunday. 
Moisture profiles are somewhat lacking although GEFS ensemble 
members would suggest at least some sort of very light QPF, 
particularly across SW MN. Latest NAM (not surprisingly) is deeper
with low level moisture and would have a bit more of a drizzle 
potential. Have expanded chance level precipitation into SW MN but
maintained slight chance wording elsewhere. This front will also 
set temperatures back into the mid 30s to mid 40s for Sunday.

Upper level flow pattern into next week favors the region staying 
void of any significant systems thru the middle of the week however 
quick moving impulses do keep some low and light precipitation 
chances in the conversation. Temperatures will bounce around some 
depending on the timing of these impulses but generally will run in 
the 40s to mid 50s for highs. 

By mid week, some sign of of the western trough reloading as a 
pronounced cutoff mid level low settles into the desert SW. Current 
guidance takes this eventual energy to our south but a system in the 
northern stream may still provide some precipitation chances. Plenty 
of uncertainty still at these ranges of the forecast however.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 518 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

There will be a potential for fog/stratus development across the 
area after 04Z, mainly north of Interstate 90. Otherwise, VFR 
conditions return by mid morning on Friday.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

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