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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls South Dakota
947 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 306 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Quiet conditions across the region with surface high pressure
sinking off to the south and east. With a west to occasionally
southwest wind, temperatures west of I-29 have rebounded into the
40s to lower 50s.

Overnight forecast challenge will be the extent of low cloud
cover/fog across the area. Models in fairly good agreement with
trapping a layer of moister within the bl inversion, although differ
in how to manifest this moisture. Have modified cloud cover to
reflect this, with some fog mention north of I-90 where sref
probabilities are highest. Temperatures largely in the mid to upper
20s expected.

Surface pressure gradient tightens Friday with an increased
southerly wind ushering in more seasonable temperatures. Cloud cover
may hold temperatures back across the north and east but otherwise
mid 40s to to lower 50s expected.

Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 306 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Quiet conditions continue into the early part of the weekend. We'll
likely see a (relatively speaking) warm start to Saturday and have
continued trends of keeping overnight lows in the upper half of
guidance. Surface front will approach our western counties by late
afternoon with 40s and lower 50s ahead of it for most of our area.

Previously mentioned front and associated shortwave will bring our
next chance of precipitation Saturday night into early Sunday.
Moisture profiles are somewhat lacking although gefs ensemble
members would suggest at least some sort of very light qpf,
particularly across SW Minnesota. Latest NAM (not surprisingly) is deeper
with low level moisture and would have a bit more of a drizzle
potential. Have expanded chance level precipitation into SW Minnesota but
maintained slight chance wording elsewhere. This front will also
set temperatures back into the mid 30s to mid 40s for Sunday.

Upper level flow pattern into next week favors the region staying
void of any significant systems thru the middle of the week however
quick moving impulses do keep some low and light precipitation
chances in the conversation. Temperatures will bounce around some
depending on the timing of these impulses but generally will run in
the 40s to mid 50s for highs.

By mid week, some sign of of the western trough reloading as a
pronounced cutoff mid level low settles into the desert SW. Current
guidance takes this eventual energy to our south but a system in the
northern stream may still provide some precipitation chances. Plenty
of uncertainty still at these ranges of the forecast however.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 939 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

There still remains a potential for fog/stratus development
across the area later tonight, mainly north of Interstate 90,
though guidance has been backing off of the threat. As a result,
confidence is low. Otherwise, VFR conditions return by mid
morning on Friday.


Fsd watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


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