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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls South Dakota
629 PM CDT sun Oct 13 2019

Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 245 PM CDT sun Oct 13 2019

Pronounced upper level low continues to lift away with our region
remaining on the far southeast periphery of the cloud shield and
within the breezier west to northwesterly winds. Temperatures have
rebounded some over yesterday's values into the upper 30s and 40s
where cloud cover remains and around 50 where sunshine has been
more persistent.

Clouds begin to thin overnight, and along with light winds, sref
probabilities and low level bl profiles would suggest some potential
for patchy fog or low stratus late tonight into Monday. Temperatures
will likely bottom out in the mid to upper 20s.

Broad ridging sets in for Monday and will provide for dry
conditions, although with a filter of upper level clouds.
Temperatures will also moderate back into the 50s and 60s with
breezy southerly surface winds.

Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 245 PM CDT sun Oct 13 2019

Quick moving shortwave and attendant cold front swings through
Monday night into Tuesday. With fairly Stout caa, expect gusty winds
and thus have trended these values upwards over the blended
guidance. Front looks to mainly come thru dry although may
eventually need to add some flurry or sprinkle mention with
favorable moisture/temperature profiles aloft in the Post frontal
stratus, particularly across SW Minnesota. Temperatures will be set back
in to the 40s to near 50 (although feeling much cooler than that).

Upper level ridge amplifies to our west by mid week with the ridge
axis slowly migrating eastward with time. This will start another
period of dry weather and with southerly surface winds and warming
mid level temps, will see warming temperatures by late in the work
week. Upper 50s and 60s should be fairly common by Thursday and
Friday.

Trough digs into the intermountain west by the weekend and sets up
our region under an increasingly southwest flow regime aloft. Latest
GFS has trended toward the overnight European model (ecmwf) with a quicker
solution with the upper level energy while the Canadian buries
things across the desert SW for a period as a cut off low. All
this to say, model details still vary but pattern would suggest a
return to a more active period by later in the weekend and early
next week. Late week temperatures will ultimately depend on system
timing and evolution but currently look to run near seasonal
normals.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 621 PM CDT sun Oct 13 2019

Broken MVFR to low end VFR cigs continue across most of the region
this evening, before clearing through the overnight hours. With
mostly clear skies and light winds, patchy fog will be possible,
mainly in khon early Monday. Otherwise, VFR are expected through
most of the period.

&&

Fsd watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.
Minnesota...none.
Iowa...none.
NE...none.
&&

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