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FXUS64 KFWD 140005

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
605 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

/00Z TAFs/

An upper level low continues to spin across the Sierra Madre in
Mexico, and is gradually moving to the east. This upper level low
has allowed for a continuous stream of mid and upper level 
moisture to move northward into North and Central Texas. Some 
light rain and drizzle has been reported across portions of 
Central Texas, but given the overall dry low levels, VFR continues
for much of the region. 

As we continue through the evening and into tonight, a gradual
top-down moistening is expected mainly across Central Texas, where
total column moisture will be enough for light precipitation. A
cold front will also be moving through the region, turning our
current southerly winds into northerly winds around 12Z Thursday
at DFW and 14Z at Waco. Along with the northerly winds, a brief 
period of MVFR is expected in the wake of the cold front, with 
light rain once again possible. 

The cold front will help usher in much drier air into the region
by Thursday afternoon, helping to clear the skies yet keeping the
northerly winds in place around 10 knots. 



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1226 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019/
/This Afternoon through Thursday/

High clouds continue to stream in across Central and North Texas
ahead of an upper trough over northern Mexico. This disturbance is
expected to move into South Texas later tonight into early
Thursday morning. As it does, low and mid level warm advection
will intensify, although moisture will be a little sluggish to
return. Skies are currently overcast around 12,000 ft in Central
Texas, but we should see a gradual saturation down to around 4,000
ft later this evening. Closer to the surface, the air is quite
dry, as indicated by dewpoints in the low/mid 20s well down into
South Texas. Given the lack of a more robust low level moisture
return, expected rainfall amounts with this system should be
fairly light. Areas of light rain or sprinkles may develop later
tonight across our southeastern counties as stronger forcing for 
ascent arrives.

Meanwhile, a stronger shortwave trough will be swinging through
the Central U.S. through tomorrow morning. This will send another
cold front southward and into the region during the early morning
hours on Thursday. While there will be some convergence along the
front, moisture is still expected to be too limited for a better
coverage of rain. We'll hang on to some PoPs across our
southeast counties through the afternoon, but much drier air will
filter in behind the front and skies should become mostly clear by

Low temperatures tonight should drop into the low/mid 30s for most
locations, while highs on Thursday should be in the mid 40s to
lower 50s. The coldest air on Thursday should be in our southeast
where clouds and rain chances will linger into the afternoon.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 335 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019/
/Thursday Night Through the Middle of Next Week/

A progressive pattern will prevail the remainder of this week and
throughout the coming week. This will mean periodic cold fronts, 
delaying the return of above normal temperatures. It will also 
prevent effective moisture return, maintaining a mostly rain-free 

In the wake of our next cold front, drier air will filter into the
region Thursday night with clearing skies and diminishing winds.
Much of the region will awaken to freezing temperatures Friday
morning, sauf the heat island of the Metroplex and a handful of
locations that are both east of I-35 and south of I-20. However,
the dry air and abundant sunshine on Friday will effectively erode
the shallow layer of cold air. This will help the warming trend in
our high temperatures to continue unabated, with most locations 
reaching the upper 50s Friday afternoon.

Southerly winds will return on Saturday. While this will only add
a couple of degrees to our temperatures, its main impact will be
to boost the low-level moisture to levels not seen since before
our recent arctic blast. This will set the stage for our only
decent rain chance in the 7-day forecast on Sunday when a trough
emerges from the Rockies and swings through the Lone Star State.
Since this feature is still in the data void of the eastern 
Pacific, there are significant disparities with its evolution and
timing. In any event, its forcing alone should realize some rain,
and the moistened sub-cloud layer should help these drops reach
the ground. This would be a quick shot as the trough races past
during the Sunday into Sunday night time frame.

The trough's passage will usher in another cold front, but this 
one would be of Pacific origin. This means minimal cold advection
and downsloping winds that will result in a sunnier and warmer 
day on Monday. A period of longwave troughing will prevail
thereafter, pushing afternoon temperatures into the 70s by Tuesday
and Wednesday.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    35  53  34  58  36 /  10   5   0   0   0 
Waco                36  49  33  59  34 /  30  30   0   0   0 
Paris               33  51  31  56  31 /  10   5   0   0   0 
Denton              30  53  31  57  34 /   5   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            33  52  31  57  34 /  10   5   0   0   0 
Dallas              37  54  34  58  36 /  10   5   0   0   0 
Terrell             36  51  32  58  33 /  20  20   0   0   0 
Corsicana           37  48  34  57  34 /  40  30   0   0   0 
Temple              36  48  32  59  33 /  50  30   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       33  54  30  57  32 /   5   0   0   0   0 



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