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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
309 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2019



Long term...
/tomorrow night through early next week/

North and central Texas will be firmly in the warm sector of a
synoptic storm system with a closed surface low over Nebraska by
early tomorrow night. A shortwave trough will be brushing by the
northern fringes of the forecast area, helping to develop
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Red River
counties. As the shortwave trough continues east, the precip
should gradually lessen in areal coverage through the early morning
hours. A warm and moist advective regime in the low levels combined
with extensive cloud cover will keep Thursday morning's lows in
the mid 60s for most of the area...about 20-25 degrees above
normal!

A slow moving cold front will be making its way south Wednesday
night, stalling out along the Red River by Thursday morning. The
stalled out cold front will be the focus for additional widespread
precip development through the day Thursday as weak shortwave
troughs move overtop of the boundary. South of the front...largely
diurnally driven scattered rain showers should develop, becoming
more widespread east of I-35 toward the late afternoon and evening.
Most of the precip will be in the form of light to moderate rain
showers, however a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. East
of I-35 and south of I-20 Thursday afternoon, a few isolated strong
thunderstorms will be possible throughout Big Country south of the
frontal boundary. The primary threat with any thunderstorms that
develop will be marginally severe hail.

Another (stronger) shortwave trough will be making its way out of
the SW Continental U.S. Thursday night. This, combined with a dip in the
northern branch of the polar front jet across the Central Plains,
will drive the stalled cold front south. The front will move
through north and central Texas Thursday night and Friday morning,
developing widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms along the
frontal boundary. Weak cyclogenesis across East Texas Thursday
night will help to enhance the precip east of I-45...where the
highest forecast precip accumulations are expected at this time. Off and
on light rain showers should continue for a few hours behind the
front, with all rain coming to an end from west to east by Friday
evening. The front will also usher in a cooler and drier airmass,
dropping friday's Post-frontal temperatures to slightly below
normal.

All in all...everyone should see at least some rain between now
and Friday. Storm total rain amounts around 1 inch (with localized
amounts between 1-2 inches) can be expected along and north of the
I-20 corridor with lesser amounts expected farther south. For the
areas south of I-20 and east of I-35, rain amounts less than 0.5"
are expected.

This weekend looks to have storybook weather with partly cloudy
skies and temperatures remaining around normal. A light freeze is
possible across our far northwestern counties Saturday morning
with overnight lows in the 30s across the region. The center of a
surface high pressure system will move through the area Saturday
night into Sunday, allowing warm advection return flow to set up
across the area late this weekend and early next week.

Our next storm system is expected to make its way into the area
next Tuesday/Wednesday. The current naefs/eps ensemble guidance
is projecting a rather deep 500 mb longwave trough to develop across
the central Continental U.S. Through the middle parts of next week. This will
help to bring another bout of cold air into the region ahead of
Thanksgiving day. Current deterministic runs have been consistent
with a very active southern branch of the pfj coinciding with
this system, which means this system will have the potential to
produce at least isolated severe thunderstorms. A lot can change
between now and then, but it's something to keep an eye on over
the next 5-7 days.

Bonnette

&&

Short term... /issued 1227 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2019/
/today and tomorrow/

An upper level ridge axis extends from Texas to the Rocky
Mountains this afternoon. This feature, along with southerly flow
at the surface, is bringing well above normal temperatures to
north and central Texas. Forecast high temperatures this afternoon
are in the mid to upper 70s, with lows tonight in the 50s
area-wide. Cloud cover will start increasing overnight, and much
of Wednesday will be cloudy, dry and mild with temperatures in the
mid to upper 70s.

A surface low develops and deepens near The Rockies Wednesday
afternoon, and a shortwave will move through west and central
Texas Wednesday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop Wednesday night across this region, moving into the far
western zones of the forecast area by early evening. A few strong
storms with small hail are possible, but would expect most storms
will remain west of the metroplex.

Elsenheimer

&&

Aviation... /issued 1227 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2019/
/18z tafs/

VFR conditions and southeast winds at 10 knots or less will
continue for the rest of the day. Winds remain southeast to south
overnight, and MVFR ceilings will begin moving northward into
north and central Texas early Wednesday morning. Confidence is
medium that these MVFR ceilings in the 015-025 range will continue
for much of the day, perhaps lifting into the low-VFR range by
late afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
evening, especially to the west of the metroplex, but chances are
too low to include at the taf sites at this time.

Elsenheimer

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 57 75 65 75 51 / 0 20 40 60 80
Waco 58 78 65 76 55 / 0 20 30 50 60
Paris 50 71 62 71 52 / 0 5 50 80 90
Denton 56 74 64 73 48 / 0 30 50 70 80
McKinney 55 74 64 73 50 / 0 20 40 70 80
Dallas 57 75 65 75 52 / 0 20 40 70 80
Terrell 54 76 64 75 53 / 0 5 40 70 80
Corsicana 55 75 64 73 56 / 0 10 30 60 60
Temple 57 78 65 76 58 / 0 10 30 40 50
Mineral Wells 56 73 62 73 46 / 0 40 40 50 80

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

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