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afdfwd

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
647 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

Aviation...
/00z tafs/

No concerns. VFR with south flow.

Despite the return of south flow today, this is still a land
breeze that will simply recycle the dry air within our postfrontal
surface high. North and central Texas will remain on the dry
western periphery of this ridge through Friday, assuring the
boundary layer stays free of clouds. The cirrus swirling within
a lingering upper low will steadily cover less of the sky as the
feature finally pushes east of the region.

Southerly winds will prevail until a cold front arrives Saturday
morning. The tail end of an upper trough will swing through the
Red River region in advance of the surface boundary. Associated
showers and storms are expected to remain north of the metroplex
taf sites during the early morning hours Saturday, but some of the
activity could enter the dfw tracon. While this will likely not
appear in the extended portion of dfw's 06z taf, there may be some
impacts to inflight traffic in the 06-12z (1-7am cdt) time frame
Saturday morning.

25

&&

Long term... /issued 307 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019/
/Friday night through Thursday/

Despite the passage of a dry cold front on Saturday, a warming
trend will persist through the weekend. A stronger cold front
will approach the region Sunday night, bringing widespread
rain/storm chances through Monday. Near-normal temperatures are
expected through most of the work week. Rain/storm chances return
by the end of the week as another cold front approaches.

As an upper level trough across the western US translates
eastward Friday night into Saturday, a dry cold front will push
southward across north and central Texas. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop across Oklahoma Friday
night. Model guidance has hinted at the possibility of the
activity just skirting the Red River counties after midnight, so
i'll add some low (20%) pops to account for this potential. Cooler
temperatures are not expected behind the front, but the drier air
will aid with mild conditions and abundant sunshine. These
conditions may result in some slightly elevated fire weather
concerns across the far northwestern zones on Saturday.

Winds will become light Saturday night and a return to southerly
flow is expected by early Sunday morning. Wind speeds on Sunday
will to near 15-20 mph in response to a deepening upper level
trough approaching the Central Plains. Low-level moisture will
spread northward through the day across central Texas and parts of
North Texas, but will struggle to reach our far northwestern
counties. As a result, elevated fire weather concerns will
persist on Sunday, mainly along and west of U.S. 281.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
region Sunday night ahead of the cold front, with the best chances
mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor (where moisture content
is greatest). Model consensus on the timing of the front
approaching the region remains to be near or after midnight on
Sunday, limiting the severe thunderstorm potential. While there
will be strong forcing for ascent associated with the upper level
trough Sunday night, surface instability will not be great due to
the overnight timing. However, strong elevated thunderstorms
could pose a marginally-severe hail and gusty wind threat. We'll
continue to monitor any changes in model data as we approach the
weekend. As the front slides across the region from the northwest
to the southeast Sunday night into Monday, pops will decrease as
well.

Besides lingering showers/storms across the southeast on Monday, the
remainder of the week will remain rain-free. Pleasant conditions
and near-normal temperatures are expected for much of the work
week with afternoon highs in the 70s to low 80s. Clear skies and
light winds during the overnight hours Monday night and Tuesday
night will allow for maximized radiational cooling, and low
temperatures will range from the mid 40s to low 50s regionwide.
Another upper level trough will begin to deepen across the western
US by midweek and southerly winds will increase in response. A
cold front will attempt to approach the region by the end of the
work week, resulting in increasing rain chances by Friday.

Garcia

&&

Short term... /issued 112 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019/
/this afternoon through Friday/

Another nice and pleasant fall afternoon is expected for north and
central Texas. Not much change to the previous forecast, as we
continue to be dominated by the high clouds brought by the upper
level low sitting to our southwest. For the rest of the day,
expect light southerly winds and temperatures only reaching the
low 70s. The combination of light winds and mostly clear skies
tonight will help the temperatures drop into the upper 40s to mid
50s Friday morning.

With the return of the south flow across our area, we will start
to warm up too. Plenty of sunshine is expected on Friday with
temperatures climbing into the 70s to the east and mid 80s to the
west. This particular area (the western zones) will have the
elevated grass fire risk as they are the driest, with relative
humidities stay below 30% and winds between 10 to 15 mph.

Sanchez

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 54 78 62 82 59 / 0 0 5 0 0
Waco 50 80 62 87 59 / 0 0 5 0 0
Paris 49 71 54 77 55 / 0 0 10 5 0
Denton 50 78 60 82 56 / 0 0 10 0 0
McKinney 50 76 59 81 57 / 0 0 10 0 0
Dallas 55 78 62 82 60 / 0 0 5 0 0
Terrell 50 78 59 84 57 / 0 0 5 0 0
Corsicana 52 76 59 83 59 / 0 0 5 0 0
Temple 51 80 62 87 61 / 0 0 5 10 0
Mineral Wells 49 81 61 82 55 / 0 0 5 0 0

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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