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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
617 am CST Wed Dec 11 2019

/12z tafs/

A narrow swath of IFR/LIFR stratus and fog has nosed its way
northward into the dfw metroplex over the past couple of hours.
This appears to be the northern edge of broad area of shallow
moisture which extends all the way to the Gulf Coast. Model
guidance has had a difficult time handling this set-up, and the
latest near-term forecast relies heavily on metar and satellite
trends. Infrared imagery indicates that the back edge of the
moisture tongue is just east of the Dallas area, so forecasts have
been updated to prevail IFR/LIFR through 15z. Cigs and
visibilities should improve thereafter as the moist axis shifts
farther to the west. Low ceilings may last a little longer in the
Waco area where slightly deeper moisture exists. Conditions
should be VFR across all locations by midday. Additional low cigs
and fog will be possible Thursday morning, but at this time it
looks like these conditions would occur west of all taf sites
where the better low level moisture values will reside.



Short term... /issued 249 am CST Wed Dec 11 2019/
/today and tonight/

Shallow moisture working its way westward around the southern
portion of a surface ridge is producing a stratus deck over
central and southeast Texas. So far these clouds have remained
south of the I-20 corridor, but recent satellite imagery indicates
a slight northward shift over the past couple of hours. Southern
portions of the dfw metroplex along with many areas south of
Interstate 20 may therefore experience overcast conditions for a
short while this morning. Temperatures have climbed above
freezing upon arrival of the stratus, and should remain above the
freezing mark for the rest of the morning thanks to the blanketing
cloud layer. Meanwhile, temperatures have fallen below 32 degrees
in nearly all locations which have remained clear, with a few
rural spots hitting the mid 20s over the past hour.

Recent high resolution guidance has been aggressive with fog
development this morning, though little to none has formed at this
point. Even so, patchy fog has been added to areas mainly on the
leading edge of the low clouds where development is most likely.
Will keep an eye on visibilities as the morning progresses and
adjust the weather grids as necessary.

Clouds are expected to scatter late this morning as the ridge
shifts to the east and light return flow develops. The ensuing
insolation will allow temperatures to climb into the 40s and
eventually lower 50s by this afternoon. Mostly clear skies will
lead to another cold night with lows falling generally into the
lower and middle 30s by daybreak Thursday. Light south winds and
slightly higher dewpoints should lead to fewer instances of mid
and upper 20s temperatures.



Long term... /issued 249 am CST Wed Dec 11 2019/
/Thursday through Tuesday/

The upper pattern will remain active through the end of the week
into the weekend, although we'll have limited chances for rainfall
as moisture return will be marginal at best. On Thursday, we
should start out with some high clouds passing through as a
disturbance swings through the Southern Plains. This system will
pass by mainly unnoticed, but southerly winds will increase some
during the afternoon as a weak area of low pressure develops over
the Texas Panhandle. On Friday as this surface low moves east, low
level winds will veer to the southwest and allow for a warmup into
the mid/upper 60s and perhaps some lower 70s across our southwest
counties. A weak front will slide down into the area on Saturday
with little change in temperatures expected.

A stronger system will move into the area late Sunday and will
bring some rain/storm chances to mainly our eastern counties late
Sunday night into Monday. Moisture return will be marginal and
generally confined to areas east of I-35. The front should move
through North Texas late Sunday night into Monday morning and
we'll have rain chances at 30-50% across the far east during this
time. Monday will be a cool day with highs in the upper 40s near
the Red River with low/mid 50s to the south, although skies should
become mostly sunny by afternoon. High pressure and mid level
ridging will prevail behind this front with temperatures slowly
moderating through mid week.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 53 35 57 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 54 33 58 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris 51 33 53 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton 52 33 56 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 52 33 55 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas 53 37 57 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 53 32 56 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 53 35 57 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple 54 35 59 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 54 32 58 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 0


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...

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