Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kfwd 221142 
afdfwd

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
642 am CDT Tue Oct 22 2019



Aviation...
/12z tafs/

A return of north to northwest winds has accompanied a weak
second push of cool air this morning. These winds should remain
fairly light (5-10kt) but just enough to force a north flow at
dfw. Winds will veer to the south 18-21z as the surface ridge
axis shifts east of the area. Gusty south winds will begin mid to
late morning Wednesday as the surface gradient tightens, hence
the third line in the extended portion of the dfw taf. Otherwise,
nice aviation weather is expected with VFR region-wide through
the end of the period.

30

&&



Short term... /issued 345 am CDT Tue Oct 22 2019/
/today through Wednesday/

Subsidence in wake of the deep upper level low pressure system
(now working its way across the midwest) will provide another
nice day across north and central Texas today. Calm winds
associated with surface high pressure in conjunction with clear
skies has led to good radiational cooling conditions across the
area. Most locations will begin the day in the 40s, with a few
upper 30s across the northwest. A second (albeit weak) push of
cool air arriving this morning will will yield light north winds
from around daybreak through early afternoon. Winds should shift
to the southeast mid to late afternoon as the surface ridge axis
heads for Louisiana. Light return flow will keep conditions
slightly warmer tonight compared to last night/this morning with
Wednesday morning lows generally in the 45 to 55 degree range.

Warm air advection will increase substantially during the day
Wednesday, as the pressure gradient tightens in advance of a
deepening trough over The Rockies and subsequent frontogenesis
over the plains. South winds will increase to 15-25 miles per hour late
Wednesday morning and persist through the day, with afternoon
highs ranging from the mid 70s across the east to lower 80s in the
west.

30

&&

Long term... /issued 345 am CDT Tue Oct 22 2019/
/Wednesday night through Monday/

A wet period is in store for the late week period beginning late
tomorrow night through Friday night. A broad longwave trough will
extend from The Rockies at the way to the Atlantic coast with
south upper ridge anchored over the eastern Pacific and immediate
West Coast. A strong mid level shortwave is being advertised to
drop quickly south across The Rockies and High Plains Wednesday
night, but then the discrepancies amongst the deterministic
medium range models with the depth of this energy appear moving
into Thursday. The European/Canadian models continue to indicate a
deeper, more cut off solution to out west over Arizona and New
Mexico late Thursday and Thursday night, while the GFS wants to
have a much more progressive and open trough sweeping east across
the central and Southern Plains. This will make all difference on
a very wet forecast Thursday into midday Friday, though all
models on par with a strong cold front crashing south through the
County Warning Area Thursday afternoon and evening.

After some neighboring collaboration with nearby National Weather Service offices and
wpc, I prefer to lean on the more consistent ensemble mean
solutions of both the geps and eps; which at 00z Friday were
fairly consistent on a deep, but open longwave trough extending
from the southern rockies/High Plains northeast to the upper
Midwest/western Great Lakes. It's possible we may see a brief warm
sector on Thursday in advance of the cold front across central
Texas. However, moisture return this time appears much less
aggressive and a bit more modified after yesterday's cold front
clearing the immediate Texas coast. We may see a brief window of
better low level moisture and instability set up Thursday
afternoon from Lampasas-Hearne-Palestine and points south. We'll
have to watch for few stronger thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
and early evening across this area, but we are not expecting
anything like we saw on Sunday night. This event will be more
about hydrologic effects and areas of heavier rainfall. Widespread
rainfall amounts between 1-3 inches look possible Thursday-Friday
evening. Otherwise, the cold front sweeps into the Gulf of Mexico
late Thursday night and Friday. With the broad and deep upper
trough to the west, it appears a good overrunning event will take
hold Thursday night into Friday, with this system finally opening
up and exiting the area to the east by this weekend. So if you
have outdoor plans this weekend you should be OK.

Much cooler and wet conditions will take hold Friday, before we
dry out over the weekend. Saturday will be a dry and more of a
sunny day outside of the first half of the morning when a few
showers linger across the east as the system exits the area. Highs
Friday will be hard pressed to get out of the 50s west/60s east,
with a gradual warming trend expected this weekend.

05/

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 75 54 79 58 70 / 0 0 0 5 70
Waco 76 51 80 58 75 / 0 0 0 0 50
Paris 70 47 74 51 67 / 0 0 0 10 50
Denton 74 49 79 56 68 / 0 0 0 10 70
McKinney 73 48 78 55 69 / 0 0 0 10 70
Dallas 75 55 79 59 71 / 0 0 0 5 60
Terrell 73 49 78 56 73 / 0 0 0 5 50
Corsicana 74 50 78 56 74 / 0 0 0 0 40
Temple 77 50 81 59 76 / 0 0 0 0 40
Mineral Wells 74 48 80 57 67 / 0 0 0 10 70

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations