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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
540 am CST Thu Dec 12 2019

/12z tafs/

A stratus deck over south central and southeast Texas continues to
dissipate as it attempts to spread north, so the morning MVFR
group has been removed from the kact forecast. VFR and light
south winds are expected at all locations through early Friday. A
surface low and weak front will approach from the northwest on
Friday, hence the additional line in the extended portion of the
dfw taf indicating veering winds ahead of the system. One-line
tafs should suffice for the rest of the sites at this time.



Short term... /issued 240 am CST Thu Dec 12 2019/
/today and tonight/

Water vapor and infrared imagery reveal a shortwave trough crossing the
Texas - New Mexico border early this morning. This system will
continue eastward across the Southern Plains today, producing
little more than high cloud cover. Night fog imagery indicates a
swath of meager moisture return over southeast Texas in the form
of a northward-expanding deck of stratus, generated by return flow
ahead of the approaching system. These clouds will reach central
Texas this morning but should become more disperse the farther
north they advance. Winds will veer and clouds will become shunted
off to the east later today as the disturbance moves quickly east
across the plains, leading to a partly to mostly sunny day with
seasonable temperatures. Southerly surface winds and slightly
higher dewpoints will keep tonight's temperatures a few degrees
above last nights readings, with lows in the upper 30s to lower



Long term... /issued 240 am CST Thu Dec 12 2019/
/Friday through Wednesday/

The end of the week through the upcoming weekend and into next
week look to be generally quiet with only one quick shot for
some rainfall. Friday morning, we'll start off beneath northwest
flow aloft with a fast moving disturbance swinging through the
Southern Plains. A weak area of surface low pressure will move
across North Texas resulting in light southerly winds becoming
northerly with a weak front sliding into the area early Saturday.
There really won't be any appreciable temperature change behind
the front with perhaps only some passing cloud cover.

Weak shortwave ridging will prevail Saturday into Sunday within
generally zonal flow aloft. A strong shortwave will move into the
4-corners region by late Sunday though and surface pressures will
fall in advance of this feature. This should lead to an increase
in southerly winds late Sunday with fairly Stout warm advection
occurring well into the nighttime hours. An increase in cloud
cover is expected during this time, although a surge in moisture
will be displaced just to our north and east. As the strong
shortwave kicks out into the plains Sunday night, a deep surface
low should track to near Wichita Falls before racing northeast
toward Tulsa by early Monday morning. A strong cold front will
slide southward through western Oklahoma and into North Texas
during the day Monday. To the east of the surface low and cold
front, we could see a few scattered showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm as early as late Sunday night into Monday morning.
The best chances for rainfall will be east of I-35.

This system quickly races eastward on Monday with rain chances
diminishing as the front moves through. Highs on Monday will range
from the 40s in the northwest to the upper 50s in the southeast.
High pressure will quickly build in behind the front with Monday
night being cold and most areas dropping to freezing or below. The
remainder of the week looks quiet with temperatures remaining in
the 50s for highs through Thursday. We'll keep an eye on another
potential system by next Friday which could bring some additional
rain chances.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 56 42 63 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 57 40 68 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris 53 39 59 38 59 / 0 0 5 0 0
Denton 55 40 62 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 54 41 61 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas 56 42 63 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 55 40 64 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 57 42 64 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple 58 39 70 42 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 57 38 63 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 0


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...

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