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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
627 PM CST sun Dec 15 2019

/00z tafs/
dry air will filter into the region tonight behind a
cold front. As of 23z, the front was south of the metroplex taf
sites and should move through Waco between 01z and 02z. Post
frontal stratus lags frontal passage by a couple of hours with MVFR ceilings
arriving at the metroplex taf sites between 02z and 03z and Waco
around 04z. Ceilings will slowly lift during the day Monday with
VFR expected by late afternoon.

A north wind will prevail through Monday afternoon. Wind speeds
this evening will be generally between 9 and 13 knots along with
some higher gusts. Wind speeds will increase on Monday between
15 and 20 knots with some gusts near 30 knots.



Long term... /issued 208 PM CST sun Dec 15 2019/
/mid week through next weekend/

A few dry and seasonably cool days are expected Tuesday and
Wednesday, as we start the day near or just below freezing before
recovering into the upper 40s and 50s in large part due to
plentiful sunshine and weak westerly low level flow. Continued
northwest flow with occasional fast-moving impulses should lead to
occasional rounds of mid-high clouds traversing quickly southeast
across the area. No precipitation is expected with a coat needed
early each day, being shed for possibly a lighter jacket or hoodie
each afternoon for those looking to get those last minute Holiday

Our next system will begin organizing over the Great Basin and
central rockies during the late week period. A shortwave ridge
overhead on Thursday will give way to increasing southwest flow
aloft and increasing low level warm advection to end the week.
Though Thursday will be rain-free, increasing moisture advection,
and lift from this next system may allow for low convective
chances by Friday and Friday night. By the weekend, this system
closes off near or east of our area with our area predominately on
the subsident side of the system. Low level dew point temperatures
and moisture depth/quality are not expected to be impressive with
this system. I only expect isolated-scattered, high-based or
elevated showers, though a few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled
out from time to time thanks to steepening lapse rates aloft
associated with the colder core of this mid level low. Better
moisture and storm potential will likely remain relegated well
east and southeast of our area across the Gulf Coast and deep

Temperatures will moderate back to mild conditions as we approach
the winter equinox next Sunday. Thanks to the aforementioned dry
low level airmass; low temperatures each morning Friday and next
weekend will start off on the chilly side from the mid 30s to mid
40s, while the dry airmass warms into the upper 50s and 60s each
afternoon. We may have to watch for elevated grass fire conditions
across western central Texas when south winds will range between
15-20 mph with a few higher gusts to go along with low humidity
values. Otherwise, the drier than normal trend on precipitation



Short term... /issued 1230 PM CST sun Dec 15 2019/
/through Monday/

Synopsis: a cold front will push through north and central Texas
later today, with a stronger push of gusty northerly winds and
cooler temperatures expected on Monday. Showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible east of I-35 beginning late
tonight, but neither severe weather nor heavy rain is expected.

Morning surface analysis reveals a 1005 mb low near Graham, TX,
with a cold front extending to the northwest along a line from the
surface low to Floydada, Texas to Tucumcari, nm. Temperatures are in
the 30s and 40s north of the cold front, with temperatures in the
50s and 60s noted in the warm sector. This cold front will make
its way across the metroplex and the rest of our County Warning Area during the
next several hours. In the upper levels, strong zonal flow is
noted across the southern tier of the conus, with a highly
amplified shortwave trough beginning to dig into the Rocky

As mentioned above, the cold front will traverse our County Warning Area during
the next several hours. The cold front passage will be noted by a
wind shift out of the northwest to north, with gradually falling
temperatures. Overnight lows will drop into the 30s across much of
North Texas, and into the 40s in central Texas. A light freeze
will be possible north of a Breckenridge to Decatur to Gainesville
line. East of I-35, there may be enough moisture to allow for some
showers to develop. In addition, high-res guidance shows that some
instability will be present, so opted to include a low-end thunder
mention as well. Severe weather is not expected.

By Monday morning, an Arctic high will build south into the
Southern Plains, while a surface low deepens over the Mississippi
Valley. In response to the tightening pressure gradient, northerly
winds will increase into the sustained 15-20 mph range with gusts
to near 30 mph. Right now, it looks like winds will remain below
advisory criteria, but the winds will be breezy enough that you
will want to secure outdoor items, especially those giant
inflatable Christmas decorations. Monday will be quite chilly, as
strong cold air advection will keep our highs in the 40s across
virtually the entire County Warning Area. The gusty northerly winds will keep wind
chills in the 30s across North Texas, and in the 40s in central
Texas. All in all, Monday will be a great day to stay inside with
a book and some hot chocolate.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 39 45 31 49 32 / 10 0 0 0 0
Waco 43 49 30 50 29 / 20 10 0 0 0
Paris 41 42 29 47 29 / 30 20 0 0 0
Denton 35 44 28 49 28 / 5 0 0 0 0
McKinney 38 44 30 48 29 / 20 5 0 0 0
Dallas 40 46 33 49 34 / 10 5 0 0 0
Terrell 43 46 30 49 29 / 30 10 0 0 0
Corsicana 46 49 32 49 30 / 30 30 0 0 0
Temple 46 52 32 50 29 / 30 10 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 34 45 27 47 27 / 5 0 0 0 0


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...

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