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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1155 am CST Thu Dec 12 2019



Short term...
/this afternoon through tomorrow/
southerly winds will prevail this afternoon as lingering high
clouds across the southeastern zones move eastward. Sunny skies
and warm/moist advection will bring high temperatures to the mid
and upper 50s while dewpoints climb from the low to mid 30s to
near 40 by sunset.

A well defined shortwave trough will swing through the area this
evening with a brief increase in mid to high cloud cover over the
north and northeast Texas. But with the passage of the trough we
will see clearing skies and subsidence aloft. The surface cold
front associated with this shortwave is weak and will not traverse
the area until after mid to late morning. With dewpoints in the
low 40s and low temperatures expected to meet or fall below this
level, it should set the stage for radiation fog to develop over
the region. The highest confidence in fog is across the
northeastern and eastern zones where some could be dense.

Any morning fog will slowly lift into low clouds on Friday. With
the passage of the weak front/wind shift winds will become more
westerly. Areas that see full sunshine should warm into the 60s
and low 70s, but if low clouds linger across the northeast zones
due to more slowly dissipating/lifting fog, those areas could
stay in the 50s for highs...so I have lowered high temps in this
region.

Tr.92

&&

Aviation...
primary aviation concern is the potential for fog late tonight,
but primarily Friday morning. Clear skies in the wake of the
shortwave trough will lead to good radiational cooling with
dewpoints near 40 and lows forecast near or below that level. The
href and NAM are the most aggressive with the fog potential, while
the GFS seems to be too aggressive with the westerly wind shift
early in the morning. Since the front that accompanies the
shortwave passage is weak and not expected to pass through until
mid to late morning, will side with the more pessimistic high res
guidance.

For the metroplex and Waco tafs, have indicated IFR conditions in
a tempo group from 12-16z. While it's possible that conditions
may be worse, I do expect at least a slight veering of the winds
above the surface which would limit the fog potential or help it
to erode a little sooner.

Otherwise VFR and generally clear skies with southerly winds near
5-10 kt will prevail today and into this evening. After any fog
Burns off, expect VFR to prevail Friday afternoon as well.

Tr.92

&&



Long term... /issued 240 am CST Thu Dec 12 2019/
/Friday through Wednesday/

The end of the week through the upcoming weekend and into next
week look to be generally quiet with only one quick shot for
some rainfall. Friday morning, we'll start off beneath northwest
flow aloft with a fast moving disturbance swinging through the
Southern Plains. A weak area of surface low pressure will move
across North Texas resulting in light southerly winds becoming
northerly with a weak front sliding into the area early Saturday.
There really won't be any appreciable temperature change behind
the front with perhaps only some passing cloud cover.

Weak shortwave ridging will prevail Saturday into Sunday within
generally zonal flow aloft. A strong shortwave will move into the
4-corners region by late Sunday though and surface pressures will
fall in advance of this feature. This should lead to an increase
in southerly winds late Sunday with fairly Stout warm advection
occurring well into the nighttime hours. An increase in cloud
cover is expected during this time, although a surge in moisture
will be displaced just to our north and east. As the strong
shortwave kicks out into the plains Sunday night, a deep surface
low should track to near Wichita Falls before racing northeast
toward Tulsa by early Monday morning. A strong cold front will
slide southward through western Oklahoma and into North Texas
during the day Monday. To the east of the surface low and cold
front, we could see a few scattered showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm as early as late Sunday night into Monday morning.
The best chances for rainfall will be east of I-35.

This system quickly races eastward on Monday with rain chances
diminishing as the front moves through. Highs on Monday will range
from the 40s in the northwest to the upper 50s in the southeast.
High pressure will quickly build in behind the front with Monday
night being cold and most areas dropping to freezing or below. The
remainder of the week looks quiet with temperatures remaining in
the 50s for highs through Thursday. We'll keep an eye on another
potential system by next Friday which could bring some additional
rain chances.

Dunn

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 57 41 61 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 58 40 68 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris 54 35 56 38 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton 56 38 60 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 56 39 58 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas 58 41 61 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 57 39 60 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 57 40 65 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple 59 39 71 42 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 57 39 63 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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