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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1116 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019

/06z tafs/

Challenges: potential for MVFR/br vsby restrictions across the d10
between 09z-15z Saturday, with even a better potential for br/fog
and IFR conditions after 06z.

A broad and weak surface high remained draped across The Ark-la-
tex with occasional mid-high clouds moving readily southeast
across the Southern Plains thanks to strong northwest flow aloft. The
mostly clears skies, near calm winds, and colder temperatures may
result in some patchy br/fog across mainly area north through east
of d10 terminals and Waco tonight. If not for relatively strong
northerly 925mb flow of 15-20 knots, the potential for fog and
lower flight restrictions would be more concerning. For now, will
hold onto tempo for MVFR/br conditions through daybreak Saturday.
Warming temperatures and winds eventually veering east-southeast should allow
for VFR conditions through 06z Sunday. Increasing low level warm air advection
associated with a warm front moving north across the area early
Sunday morning should gives US a better chance of advection br/fog
at all terminals by 12z Sunday. For now, I added a 24-30 hour
forecast for dfw for MVFR/br conditions after 10z Sunday.

Light north or calm winds will prevail through 18z Sunday, before
veering southeast at 6-10 knots by 00z Sunday.



Discussion... /issued 237 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019/
synopsis: after a quiet weekend, a strong cold front will pass on
Monday, bringing rain and thunderstorm chances for areas east of
I-35. Much colder temperatures can be expected for early next
week, with freezing temperatures likely on both Monday night and
Tuesday night. A steady warming trend will commence by the middle
of the week, with the next rain chances coming towards the end of
the week.

Surface analysis from this morning showed that the Southern Plains
are in fairly weak flow. Light northerly winds were in place
courtesy a weak trough of low pressure stretched along the Red
River. After a foggy and cool start, we have managed to warm into
the upper 50s or lower 60s, making for a pleasant afternoon. To
the north, a frontal zone is stretched across the upper Midwest
and northern rockies, forming a separation between Continental
polar air to the south, and Continental Arctic air to the north.
The air mass to the north of this frontal zone is quite frigid,
with a balmy temperature reading of -38 f noted in southend,
Saskatchewan this morning, up near the 56th parallel. In the
upper levels, a broad trough stretches nearly coast to coast, with
the axis along a line from Winnipeg, mb to Topeka, Kansas to
Brownsville, Texas.

The upper-level pattern will remain quite progressive through the
next seven days. Weak upper-level ridging will return over the
weekend, leading to warmer temperatures. Sunday should be
spectacular with highs in the 70s expected for much of our County Warning Area.
There could be some very slight chances for showers in our far
northern counties in the morning as warm air advection resumes,
but expect the higher chances (still low) to stay up in Oklahoma.

The next upper-level trough will swing into the Great Plains on
Monday, driving a cold front south and across our region. Monday
looks to be quite chilly, with highs likely struggling to get much
into the 50s in North Texas. Gusty northerly winds will mean wind
chills staying in the 40s. Some showers and thunderstorms may
develop ahead of the cold front, mainly east of Interstate 35. In
general, rain chances will increase the farther south and east one
GOES. At this time, the severe weather threat looks to be low to
none. Rainfall totals will also be light for most locations.
Monday night will be cold with lows likely to fall to near or
below freezing for much of the County Warning Area. Tuesday night will be even
colder as winds settle down, and skies clear out, allowing for
excellent radiational cooling. The entire County Warning Area should see below
freezing temperatures on Tuesday night, with our western counties
likely falling into the lower 20s.

By the middle of next week, we should begin a slow warming trend
as southerly flow becomes established across the region. The next
rain chances will come on Thursday night and into Friday as yet
another upper-level trough approaches the region.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 42 59 47 72 42 / 0 0 0 0 10
Waco 41 64 48 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 5
Paris 39 53 42 66 44 / 0 0 0 5 30
Denton 39 58 44 71 39 / 0 0 0 0 10
McKinney 39 58 44 70 42 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dallas 42 59 47 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 10
Terrell 41 58 46 73 46 / 0 0 0 0 20
Corsicana 43 61 48 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 20
Temple 43 67 50 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 5
Mineral Wells 39 61 44 72 37 / 0 0 0 0 5


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...

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