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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
623 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019



Aviation...
/00z tafs/

Concerns -- none. Winds veering very gradually back to south flow.

High pressure continues to build into the southern and central
Continental U.S. In the wake of last night's cold front. Clear skies and
light...northerly winds prevail this evening. Winds will become
light and variable late tonight as the axis of the high pressure
makes its way east. Winds will gradually veer during the day
Tuesday...becoming southeasterly by mid-afternoon.

37

&&



Discussion... /issued 345 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019/

The primary concern for this forecast period will be the next cold
front that moves through Thursday evening. Currently, colder and dry
air continues to move into the area, producing clear skies and more
pleasant temperatures. Highs for the next couple days should remain
in the upper 70s across the area with lows staying in the low to mid
50s. Winds will begin to shift to the south Tuesday morning into the
afternoon, which will begin to advect warmer temperatures and
moisture back into the area.

During this time, the next trough begins to dig its way through the
Lee side of The Rockies. Unfortunately, there's still a large
disagreement between the different model solutions on the treatment
of this trough. The GFS keeps a progressive open wave that digs
through the Texas Panhandle and moves through Thursday and exits the
area Friday. The European model (ecmwf) develops a closed low over New Mexico that
deepens and slowly moves over western Texas on Saturday before
exiting the region on Sunday. We are starting to get into the range
of mid-range models, which the NAM is suggesting more of an open
wave pattern like the GFS.

For this forecast we are leaning more towards the progressive
patterns, and leaving a small chance of precipitation in for Friday
and Saturday given the wide difference of solutions. While there is
a wide range of solutions for the upcoming weather, there is at
least consensus towards a cold front precipitation late in the week,
and it's just a question of how much rain and for how long.
Following this front, there's a consensus on cooler temperatures
lingering over the weekend before the return flow kicks in again
bringing warmer temperatures and moisture back into the area.

Zwink



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 48 75 51 79 58 / 0 0 0 0 10
Waco 45 76 50 79 57 / 0 0 0 0 5
Paris 44 69 46 73 50 / 0 0 0 0 10
Denton 43 75 50 79 56 / 0 0 0 0 10
McKinney 43 74 49 77 54 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dallas 50 76 52 79 57 / 0 0 0 0 10
Terrell 45 75 49 78 54 / 0 0 0 0 10
Corsicana 47 74 49 76 54 / 0 0 0 0 5
Temple 46 76 49 79 58 / 0 0 0 0 5
Mineral Wells 43 75 49 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 10

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

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