Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kfwd 222338
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
638 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019
Concerns -- increasing southerly winds Wednesday afternoon.
Calm and quiet weather is expected tonight as a surface high
remains centered over East Texas. On Wednesday...surface pressure
falls across the Southern Plains will result in increasing
southerly winds across north and central Texas. Sustained winds of
15-20 knots with gusts of 25-30 knots will be likely during the
afternoon hours. Winds will be from almost due south...which
should preclude any crosswind concerns at kdfw/kdal...but strong
Crosswinds will be a concern for any airfield with east-west
oriented runways. Winds should diminish after sunset...but will
remain 10-15 knots.
Extended outlook...a strong cold front will move into North Texas on
Thursday morning and exit central Texas late Thursday evening.
Widespread rain showers/thunderstorms and rain will be likely with the frontal passage along with a
sharp wind shift out of the north.
Short term... /issued 309 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019/
dry and subsident air will remain across north and central Texas,
resulting in a mostly clear and cool night with lows in the upper
40s and lower 50s.
Long term... /issued 309 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019/
/Wednesday through Tuesday/
low level moisture will increase Wednesday in response to a
deepening trough in the west. Even though dewpoints will increase
steadily through the day, they will likely remain in the 50s.
Abundant sun and increasing warm air advection will result in a
warm day Wednesday with afternoon highs a few degrees above
seasonal normals (upper 70s to lower 80s).
A cold front will enter the northwest zones late Wednesday night as
a mid level shortwave moves east across the Central Plains. Lift
along the front should be sufficient for the development of some
showers and thunderstorms. Although a few storms could form in the
warm sector ahead of the front, limited moisture and a lack of
instability should keep storms below severe limits.
More numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday when
the cold front slides through the entire forecast area and the
primary long wave trough digs across the central and Southern
Plains. There is still some discrepancy among the models with
regards to the fate of the long wave trough, but regardless of
which solution verifies, north and central Texas should see a good
chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Although there will
be adequate mid level shear to sustain storm updrafts, meager
instability and the fast movement of the cold front will likely
limit the potential for severe storms. It is still not out of the
question for a few storms to produce small hail and gusty winds,
especially south of the I-20 corridor Thursday afternoon and
Confidence in the forecast decreases rapidly Thursday
night/Friday since the European model (ecmwf) and Canadian still cut off a piece of
energy across West Texas Friday, prolonging large scale lift and
rain chances through Saturday. We still favor the more
progressive solution of the GFS and sref, with most of the
rainfall ending on Friday, but we will linger some low pops
through Saturday across the northeast zones to account for any
large scale lift that may cut off from the main trough.
A brief period of subsidence will occur Saturday through Sunday
as the late week system races off to the east and another upper
trough deepens in the northwest. This upper trough is progged to
swing across the central and Southern Plains Sunday night/Monday,
sending another cold front through North Texas. Although showers
and thunderstorms will be possible along and behind the front,
moisture should be very limited so we will keep pops low (10%-20%)
Monday and Tuesday.
Overall, temperatures Thursday through early next week should be
below seasonal normals with highs mainly in the 60s and lower 70s
and lows in the 40s and 50s. The coolest day will likely be Friday
when some locations across the west may not get out of the 50s
and lows may struggle to stay above 40 in some locations.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 54 78 58 72 48 / 0 0 10 60 60
Waco 51 81 58 77 49 / 0 0 5 50 60
Paris 47 73 51 68 47 / 0 0 10 30 50
Denton 52 79 58 70 46 / 0 0 10 60 60
McKinney 51 77 56 71 46 / 0 0 10 50 60
Dallas 54 78 58 72 49 / 0 0 5 50 60
Terrell 50 78 55 75 48 / 0 0 5 40 50
Corsicana 51 77 55 75 49 / 0 0 5 30 50
Temple 51 81 59 77 50 / 0 0 5 50 60
Mineral Wells 50 80 56 68 43 / 0 0 10 60 60