Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kggw 221027
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow Montana
327 am MST Fri Nov 22 2019
A generally weak upper ridge pattern over the region will provide
continued dry and relatively mild weather conditions over the next
couple of days. That said, look for patchy fog formation in the
valley locations this morning. Otherwise, skies should remain
mostly sunny with the presence of large scale subsidence.
Heading into Saturday night and Sunday, a weak embedded shortwave
in northwest upper flow will drop southeast from Canada. This
system will bring with it an increase in cloud cover as well as a
chance for rain and snow Sunday morning, changing to all rain
Sunday afternoon. Ensemble guidance points to this being a low
precipitation event, with quantitative precipitation forecast within a few hundredths of an inch.
Thus, do not expect significant overall impacts.
A general trough pattern will set up for next week with a
decreasing trend in temperatures, with ensemble 500mb heights
showing a deepening trough and closed low pattern over the western
U.S. By the midweek. Guidance is also suggestive of a low pressure
system developing out a head of this trough and tracking
northeast. This will bring the next chance for snow for NE
Montana, though at day 7 and 8, confidence is reduced. Details are
often uncertain at larger time scales where a larger spread in
model solutions is evident. That said, this will be the next
period of interest, especially as it pertains to potential Holiday
travel impacts. Maliawco
while VFR conditions are expected to prevail today, patchy
freezing fog may at times occur near area terminals through 17z.
Look for west to southwest winds today, generally ranging between
5 and 15 kts. Maliawco