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fxus63 kgid 121053 
afdgid

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
453 am CST Tue Nov 12 2019

..aviation update...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 316 am CST Tue Nov 12 2019

Clear skies and cold temperatures are being observed across the
local area this morning. Expect the responsible area of high
pressure to our south to continue to shift away from the region
today...and for the pressure gradient to increase on the backside
of this high pressure system. This will result in a breezy
southerly return flow by afternoon...warming temperatures back up
into the 30s and 40s...albeit still about 10-15 degrees below
normal for mid-November.

A weak upper level disturbance will approach from the northwest
overnight...with some increasing high cloud cover combined with
light...but steady...southerly flow...helping to keep low
temperatures much closer to normal than this mornings unseasonably
cold readings.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 316 am CST Tue Nov 12 2019

The best chance for precipitation comes at the onset of the
extended periods when the aforementioned upper level wave affects
portions of the local area on Wednesday...primarily north of
Interstate 80. Made very minor adjustment to pops and precip
type...as this continues to look like a very minor event with a
small chance for some sleet at the onset as the dendritic layer
becomes saturated but a warmer layer below this combined with cold
surface temps continues to support this as a possibility for a
couple of hours. Even so...this should be a light event across our
area...with only a hundredth or two of total precipitation
expected during the day Wednesday.

Beyond Wednesday...dry northwesterly flow with weak ridging this
weekend is forecast...which will result in a return to near or
slightly above normal temps for the end of the week and into the
upcoming weekend...with no significant disturbances to justify the
mention of even light precipitation at this time. So after a cold
start to the forecast today...more typical Fall weather should
return by the end of the week and through early next week.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z kgri/kear tafs through 12z wednesday)
issued at 449 am CST Tue Nov 12 2019

VFR is forecast through the period. A low level jet will setup tonight and
have a mention of low level wind shear in the tafs. Winds will be a little gusty
this afternoon, but will taper down at sunset as the inversion
sets up.

&&

Gid watches/warnings/advisories...
NE...none.
Kansas...none.
&&

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