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FXUS63 KGID 070839

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
239 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2019

Issued at 235 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2019

Dry weather and mild temperatures are forecast through the weekend. 
Weak upper ridging over the Rockies and warmer air to our west 
will advect onto our region today with the upper ridge axis 
deamplifying as it reaches the plains states. Temps will trend 
above normal this afternoon in the warmer airmass with readings 
topping out in the 50s for highs. Still expect an increase in 
southerly winds this aftn in deeper mixing ahead of an approaching
cool front. Have trended closer to high resolution models for 
wind gusts this aftn with the strongest speeds across the eastern 
half of our cwa ahead of the boundary.

Slightly cooler air and more cloud cover Sunday should keep temps 
just below todays highs, but still nice with readings near or in the 
50s and less wind.

Enjoy the warmer weekend temps as the weather will turn abruptly 
colder with the passage of a strong cold front late Sunday 
night/Monday morning. Fropa will be a noticeably one marked by gusty 
winds and sharply colder air. Wind gusts are expected to top 30 mph 
and combined with the cold airmass...wind chill values Monday are 
forecast in the single digits and teens and it'll be quite a 
change from the weekend weather. Some light snow or flurries may 
accompany the fropa/upper trough passage but little if any 
accumulation is expected despite the aggressive NAM suggesting a 
band of snow near the Neb/KS stateline.

An upper trough continues to deepen across the plains/upper Midwest 
region early next week, reinforcing the cold airmass. A 130kt jet 
streak nosing south on the back side of the trough could generate 
some flurries/very light snow at times but not significant enough to 
include in the forecast attm.

Compared to 24 hours ago, the upper trough and associated cold 
airmass looks to depart a little faster now, with Wednesday being 
the transition day between systems. A shortwave trough crossing the 
plains Wednesday night/Thursday is expected to move through dry, and 
will be followed by a moderating airmass for Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Saturday)
Issued at 1103 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Southwest
winds will increase during the aftn and included some gusts near
20kts but model forecasts soundings are not indicated as deep of
mixing as shown 24 hours ago. If mixing doesn't materialize, may
need to monitor the potential for marginal low level wind shear
due to stronger winds above the surface.




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