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fxus63 kgid 180907 
afdgid

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
307 am CST Mon Nov 18 2019

Short term...(today through Tuesday night)
issued at 302 am CST Mon Nov 18 2019

A weak upper level disturbance and surface trough are currently
moving through the region. This has allowed a few light showers
and sprinkles to develop over northern Nebraska. These are
expected to track through central Nebraska early this morning
before dissipating by around sunrise.

Northwest winds will then pick up considerably by mid morning.
Hrrr and rap soundings show that we could have wind gusts of 30 to
40 miles per hour at times into the afternoon. Despite the strong northwest
wind, we are moving into a warmer airmass, and high temperatures
are expected to range from the mid 60s to near 70 degrees this
afternoon.

Southerly winds will return on Tuesday as we see mid and upper
level ridging move overhead. Winds have trended a bit stronger,
but this should still end up being a fairly nice day with highs in
the 60s to near 70 degrees once again.

Long term...(wednesday through sunday)
issued at 302 am CST Mon Nov 18 2019

The weather pattern gets much more active starting on Wednesday.
The first feature to watch will be the cutoff low that is forecast
to move across the southwestern Continental U.S. And up through the local
area by Wednesday night. Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) show some positive
instability, so we could even see isolated thunderstorms as the
low moves through. Models are in reasonable agreement on this
system, and it still appears that it will be mainly a rain-
producer for the local area. Currently, only areas northwest of a
line from Lexington to Ord are forecast to see very minor snow
accumulations on the backside of the system.

Thursday will be a much colder day. Highs will only be in the 30s
and low 40s...which is only a few degrees warmer than our lows
over the past few mornings

Forecast confidence falls off considerably on Friday. This is
mainly due to the the uncertainty on the timing and track of the
next cutoff low coming out of the western Continental U.S.. for now, the
model consensus keeps the highest chances for precipitation across
Kansas, and it is relatively warm with high temps in the mid 40s.
That being said, the latest European model (ecmwf) is much colder and farther
north with the low track, which would introduce a chance for
several inches of snow to portions of the area. Taking a quick
glance a the eps ensemble, this appears to be a little aggressive,
but this is definitely a time period Worth watching. Expect to
see fluctuations over the coming days.

For Saturday and Sunday, there is good model support for a dry
period and a brief warmup as we are in between systems. Beyond
that, ensembles show more cold air moving in for next week along
with the possibility for more snow.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z kgri/kear tafs through 06z monday)
issued at 1118 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019

VFR cloud cover will continue into Monday morning. Ceilings may
dip to around 7kft at times. We still can rule out a few
sprinkles early Monday morning, but this threat is pretty low.
Skies will then gradually clear from west to east on Monday.

Winds will be northwesterly through the entire period and will be
quite gusty during the daytime. Gusts to 30kts are likely at times
during the late morning and afternoon.



&&

Gid watches/warnings/advisories...
NE...none.
Kansas...none.
&&

$$

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