Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kgid 180522 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1122 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019

..aviation update...

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 330 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019

Today has turned into a pleasant day with highs in the mid 50s for
most places. Another disturbance will move across the area tonight
bringing with it cloud cover and a brief chance for sprinkles for
the far northern sections of the area. The disturbance tonight
looks to be weaker than last night's and it struggled to produce
any sprinkles, so have less confidence in any tonight.

Monday and Tuesday are expected to be in the 60s for most areas,
but breezy northwesterly winds will be present Monday. This will
cause Tuesday to feel like the nicer day.

Long term...(wednesday through sunday)
issued at 330 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019

Wednesday and Thursday is where the focus should be as far as
appreciable weather is concerned. The cut-off low off the Baja
Coast will get kicked out with another disturbance as it digs into
the Southern California region. This disturbance will bring some
moisture with it and will bring the best chance for rain to the
region that we have had in a number of weeks. Ahead of this system
a front will move across the region and stall out in Kansas. The
better moisture will be south of the front, so the best quantitative precipitation forecast is
expected over eastern Kansas, but with the latest 12z guidance
coming into better agreement with the timing/placement of the
wave, it looks that at least the east/southeast portion of the
area has a decent chance for seeing rain Wednesday night. The
colder air will arrive and on the far back side of the system some
snow could mix in. There is still plenty of time until this
system impacts US and plenty of time for changes on the most
likely track and best precip potential.

Beyond Thursday the medium range guidance is coming into better
agreement on the timing of the upper low moving across the Continental U.S..
overall it cools with highs near 40 behind the front for
Thursday, moderating closer to the upper 40s normal through the
weekend. There is another chance for precip Friday as the upper
disturbance moves across the area, but there is too much
uncertainty at this juncture to say much more.


Aviation...(for the 06z kgri/kear tafs through 06z monday)
issued at 1118 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019

VFR cloud cover will continue into Monday morning. Ceilings may
dip to around 7kft at times. We still can rule out a few
sprinkles early Monday morning, but this threat is pretty low.
Skies will then gradually clear from west to east on Monday.

Winds will be northwesterly through the entire period and will be
quite gusty during the daytime. Gusts to 30kts are likely at times
during the late morning and afternoon.


Gid watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations