Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kgld 142101
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
301 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019
Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019
Dry conditions will persist through the short term period with
warm temperatures turning briefly colder on Tuesday and a trend
towards warmer temperatures on Wednesday.
An upper trough sweeps across the High Plains region early
Tuesday with another ridge moving across The Rockies and High
Plains on Wednesday. A cold front moves across the forecast area
ahead of the upper trough overnight tonight with colder
temperatures and gusty winds to follow during the day on Tuesday.
Very dry conditions with relative humidity values of 5-10% are
present this afternoon along and west of a line from McCook, NE to
Gove, Kansas. Even though the conditions are very dry, wind speeds
will vary across the region and will generally be below criteria
required for a fire weather highlight. With cooler temperatures
expected on Tuesday, relative humidity values with be higher with minimum
relative humidities of 15-20% across fare eastern Colorado. With
dry and breezy conditions expected, fire weather will be slightly
elevated, but is not expected to be critical.
Relative humidity values will drop again on Wednesday afternoon as
temperatures begin warming again on Wednesday. South winds on the
back side of the surface high pressure area moving across the
region will be light, so no fire weather highlights are expected.
Long term...(thursday through monday)
issued at 241 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019
Synopsis... unsettled weather will return to the tri-state area late
this week and into early next week. Temperatures will start out
above average with afternoon highs in the 70s and 80s Thursday and
Friday, but a surge of cooler air behind a cold front this weekend
will bring high temperatures back down to the 50s across the
forecast area by Monday. Rain showers will be possible Friday
afternoon and evening as well as Saturday afternoon and evening.
Rain mixed with snow will be possible Sunday evening and into early
Monday morning as temperatures get close to or go below freezing,
especially farther west into east-central Colorado. Not expecting
major accumulations or precipitation amounts at this time.
Discussion... a strong upper-level ridge centered over the Southern
Plains region of the United States will finally break down around
Friday this week as an eastward-progressing weak upper-level trough
moves across the Central High plains. This weak trough will bring
increased upper-level support for rising motion and associated
chances for rain showers across most of the forecast area Friday
afternoon and evening. Significant rainfall is not expected from
this initial trough, but increased cloud cover and northerly surface
winds will help to begin the process of cooling the region down from
thursday's abnormally hot temperatures.
By late Saturday, a stronger longwave upper-level trough will mature
over the western half of the United States. This trough will bring
strong upper-level support for ascent and resulting precipitation to
the tri-state area this weekend through early next week. Long
term model guidance from the Euro and GFS models are beginning to
agree on the timing and the strength of this trough which is
increasing forecaster confidence that cooler, wetter weather is in
store late this week. Precipitation chances will persist
essentially from Saturday evening through Monday afternoon as this
trough deepens and develops a closed low over the Central Plains.
With overnight lows getting to or below freezing, rain will
likely change over to snow at times overnight Sunday and into
early Monday, especially in east-central Colorado. No significant
accumulations are expected at this time given the warm ground and
only brief changeover to snow with near or below freezing
The upper-level trough is expected to progress eastward into the
Midwest by Monday evening which will put the Central High plains on
the convergent upper-level flow side of the trough which will reduce
precipitation chances. While there is still room for significant
timing changes given that this event is 7 days out, long term
forecast models tend to agree that this upper-level trough will
keep moving eastward out of the forecast area as it strengthens.
This likely means that any impacts as far as precipitation amounts
or winter weather will be limited as this trough makes a quick
exit, stage right.
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1112 am MDT Mon Oct 14 2019
VFR conditions are expected at both mck and gld through the 18z
taf period with clear skies. Light winds will continue into the
evening turning to the northwest and becoming gusty through the
remainder of the night and through mid day Tuesday following the
passage of a cold front.