Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kgld 160000
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
500 PM MST sun Dec 15 2019
Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 229 PM MST sun Dec 15 2019
Forecast focus is on the near term portion of the short term from
tonight through mid-day Monday as the remainder of the upper
trough moves over The Rockies and High Plains.
Skies will remain mostly cloudy as the main upper trough axis
moves across the region. The short wave troughs circulating
through the base of the main upper trough take a more southerly
Route from southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico across
southern Kansas and the Panhandle region tonight into Monday. The
surface front remains well south of the region with a low tracking
across the Southern Plains and colder high pressure remaining
generally in place across the forecast area. An area flurries and
light snow may extend from central Colorado into Kansas this evening,
but should continue to push south overnight with little to no
snowfall accumulation expected across the gld forecast area.
Dry conditions are expected from mid-day Monday and beyond. High
temperatures remain in the 30s through Monday and warm into the
40s and 50s through Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper ridge moves
in to replace the trough and the southwest near surface flow
pushes the cold air out of the region. Overnight lows in the teens
will be back up into the 20s by Wednesday night.
Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 115 PM MST sun Dec 15 2019
Long term period remains quiet with no impactful weather expected.
Upper trough/cut off low will move through Thursday night and
Friday, and although the GFS and European model (ecmwf) differ on the details
neither model is producing precipitation. GFS solution still shows
a period of gusty northwest winds possible on the backside
Thursday night/Friday morning, though confidence is low.
Afterwards, a large ridge will build across the southern and
central conus, dominating the pattern through the weekend with
continued dry conditions and above normal temperatures.
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 500 PM MST sun Dec 15 2019
For kgld and kmck, VFR conditions currently expected through the
period. There is some shallow moisture that could produce sub VFR
cigs at just about any time during the taf period. Given the low
confidence in this happening currently have VFR tafs for both
sites. Winds will become light and variable this evening then
establish a northwest direction at speeds approaching 10-11kts
during the day Monday.