Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kgld 132339
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
539 PM MDT sun Oct 13 2019
Short term...(tonight through Monday night)
issued at 1236 PM MDT sun Oct 13 2019
Relatively quiet weather is expected throughout the short term
forecast period as a strong upper-level ridge builds over the
tri-state area. Temperatures will be a bit warmer under mostly
clear skies and light winds.
Today and tonight... clear skies are expected with highs in the
mid 60s to low 70s with warmer temperatures farther southwest.
Light and variable winds will eventually become light from the
southeast this evening turning south-southwest overnight.
Overnight lows will range from the low to upper 30s with cooler
temperatures farther west.
Monday and Monday night... skies will remain clear as winds
continue to be light and variable underneath the strong upper-
level ridge. This stagnant air and clear skies will allow for
temperatures to warm up potentially as high as the low 80s by
Monday afternoon. Most everyone in the tri-state area will get to
the mid 70s if not warmer. With relatively dry air in place, the
potential for elevated fire weather conditions will be present
with these warmer temperatures on Monday, particularly along and
west of Kansas Hwy 27. However, since the winds are projected to be so
light, critical fire weather conditions are not expected and no
fire weather products will be issued at this time. The drier air
will still allow temperatures to become chilly overnight Monday
with lows ranging from the low 30s in Yuma County, Colorado to the
low 40s in Graham County, Kansas.
Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 249 PM MDT sun Oct 13 2019
Tuesday, we will see a weak frontal passage passing through the area, and
biggest thing to mention will be stronger winds. Min relative humidity values
will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s with north winds 10 to 20 mph.
With the front, cooler and wetter air will push into our area, so
not expecting any fire weather criteria to be met. Despite a
windy and cool afternoon, highs will be around 60 with overnight
lows in the lower 30s.
Wednesday and Thursday we see our area dry out as riding builds
over the area. Highs will be in the lower to upper 70s, with
overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. May have some fire
weather concerns on Thursday, but don't know yet if the winds will
be strong enough.
Friday through Sunday, guidance seems better aligned for our next
frontal system. Went with nbm for the extended as we are still
pretty far out. But, in general, expect snow for the weekend.
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 539 PM MDT sun Oct 13 2019
Overview: confluent flow aloft /subsidence/ will maintain clear
skies and VFR conditions throughout the taf period.
Gld: light southerly winds this evening may become variable or
calm at times overnight. Light (5-10 knot) south-southwest-SW winds late
Monday morning will shift to the northwest at 10-14 knots during the
afternoon, becoming light/variable or calm near the end of the
taf period -- at or above sunset Monday evening.
Mck: light southerly winds this evening may become variable or
calm at times overnight. South-southwest winds will increase to 12-17 knots
late Monday morning, then veer to the SW-west-southwest and decrease to ~10
knots during the afternoon, becoming light/variable or calm near
the end of the taf period -- at or above sunset Monday evening.