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fxus63 kgld 122330 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
430 PM MST Thu Dec 12 2019

Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 140 PM MST Thu Dec 12 2019

Above average temperatures today and Friday turn colder on
Saturday following the passage of a cold front. Temperatures will
be 10-15 degrees cooler on Saturday than on Friday along with a
chance of light snow spreading across the area from Saturday into
Saturday night.

A short wave trough spreading high clouds across the forecast area
today will continue to move east tonight with northwest flow in
it's wake bringing another weaker short wave trough through the
region Friday night. Short wave ridging in place early Saturday
quickly transitions to a westerly then southwesterly flow aloft
as the next larger scale trough moves into the western U.S. By
early Sunday morning.

A surface trough moves east across the region during the day on
Friday in advance of the cold front with an increasing pressure
gradient across the area Friday afternoon. Gusty northwest winds
are expected across mainly the northwest section of the forecast
area where the pressure gradient will be strongest. Relative humidity values will
drop into the lower 20 percent range. This combination of lower relative humidity
values and gusty winds may end up producing elevated fire weather
conditions, but criteria for a red flag warning and critical fire
weather conditions is not expected to be met.

As high pressure settles into the region behind the cold front on
Saturday and Saturday night, upslope conditions start to develop
with surface winds turning to the southeast. Precipitation may
start out as a rain snow mix Saturday afternoon with little to no
accumulation that changes over to all snow after sunset with only
very light snow accumulations of less than one quarter inch after
midnight Saturday night.

Long term...(sunday through thursday)
issued at 133 PM MST Thu Dec 12 2019

The main wx focus in the extended period will be on the potential
for accumulating snowfall Sunday into Monday. Storm system expected
to move off The Rockies late Saturday night into Sunday morning,
then eastward into the Central Plains exiting east going into Monday

Models have had a history of inconsistency in timing/placement of
the expected system, especially the GFS. As a result, snowfall
amounts continue to be in flux. Have gone with a consensus track of
GFS/NAM/ECMWF bringing the low across central Kansas before exiting.
Low level moisture feeding into the region ahead of the low track
puts southern locales with best chances for accumulating snows.
These numbers south of the Interstate could reach advisory levels
especially along and south of Highway 40. Even areas east of Highway
83 could see additional accum on the backside of the low as it exits
putting them close as well to an advisory. For now, will continue
highlighting a north to south increasing snow gradient based on
latest track. Precipitation looks to peak during the late
afternoon/evening hours Sunday...tapering off from west to east on
Monday morning.

The passage of the expected storm system by the late morning/early
afternoon hours Monday will then usher in a period of dry weather
lasting thru much of next week. Upper level ridge over the western
portion of the country, will shift eastward thru the extended before
flattening over the plains region by midweek next week. A Lee-side
trough combined with high pressure setting up east of the County Warning Area on
Wednesday will bring the region back to more normal temps.

For temps...high temperatures look to remain fairly steady at below
normal in the 30s for Sunday and on thru Tuesday. Snowfall/clouds
for Sunday/Monday and ridge over the area will keep temps intact
until Wednesday/Thursday, as highs reach into the 40s with warm air advection
occurring on increased westerly/downslope flow. Overnight lows will
range mainly in the teens, with low 20s possible by next Thursday


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 430 PM MST Thu Dec 12 2019

For kgld and kmck, VFR conditions through the period. Both
terminals will see southwest winds under 10kts from taf issuance
through about 07z then veering to the west near 10kts from 08z-
18z. After 19z northwest winds increase with gusts of 25 to 30kts
currently expected.


Gld watches/warnings/advisories...

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