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fxus63 kgld 221134 
afdgld

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
534 am MDT Tue Oct 22 2019

Short term...(today through Wednesday night)
issued at 257 am MDT Tue Oct 22 2019

Water vapor imagery and 500mb height rap analysis showed a strong
low pressure system over eastern Minnesota/western Wisconsin
overnight. As this disturbance slowly shifted northeast, ridging
persisted along the West Coast, keeping the High Plains under
northwest flow. Skies were mostly clear across the tri-state
region on the backside of the departing trough. At 3 am MDT,
temperatures ranged in the 30s across the area, with west winds at
10 to 15 mph.

A relatively dry air mass remains in place across the region today,
with northwest to west downslope flow as surface troughing develops
along The Rockies. This flow helps temperatures rise into the low to
mid 60s this afternoon under sunny skies. With relative humidity
values in the 15 to 20 percent range and breezy winds across much
of the region, near critical fire weather conditions are possible
during the afternoon. Winds turn to the southwest tonight as
temperatures fall into the 30s to low 40s under increasing clouds.

A cold front pushes across the forecast area on Wednesday, causing a
range in high temperatures from the mid 50s in Yuma County, Colorado
to the mid 60s in Graham County, Kansas. With this front, breezy
north-northwesterly winds are anticipated midday. The upper trough
associated with this system swings southeast from the central
rockies to the plains, generating light rain chances as early as the
mid afternoon hours in eastern Colorado. However, the better chance
of precipitation will be Wednesday night for the majority of the
region before tapering off to the south Thursday morning. As
temperatures fall into the upper 20s to low 30s overnight into the
morning, rain should transition to snow. Light snow accumulations
will be possible mainly in eastern Colorado and adjacent counties in
Kansas south of Interstate 70. Will need to monitor in the coming
day to refine this forecast as guidance comes into better
agreement.

Long term...(thursday through monday)
issued at 230 am MDT Tue Oct 22 2019

Overview: an active /albeit complex/ synoptic pattern will
prevail over the western half of the Continental U.S. Late this week through
early next week. In such a pattern, forecast confidence is far
below average.

Thu-Sat: in this period, the 00z GFS/European model (ecmwf) vary considerably with
regard to the evolution of an upper level trough over the central
Continental U.S.. the GFS suggests that the aforementioned trough will
bodily progress eastward from the central/Southern Plains through
the MS River Valley, while the European model (ecmwf) depicts more of a split-flow
type scenario -- with a cut-off low meandering over portions of
the Desert Southwest and southern/Central Plains. With the above
in mind -- sensible weather conditions cannot be reasonably
ascertained at this time.

Sat-Mon: although long range guidance is in broad agreement that
cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the western half of the
conus, the GFS and European model (ecmwf) vary significantly with regard to the
evolution of shortwave energy therein, and with forecast
confidence already undercut by divergent model solutions mid-late
week -- there is very, very little confidence in sensible weather
conditions this weekend.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 534 am MDT Tue Oct 22 2019

VFR conditions are anticipated at both kgld and kmck terminals
through the taf period. Northwest winds are forecast to increase
this morning, with gusts of 20 to 25 knots by the afternoon,
then decline around sunset. Skies should generally be clear
throughout the day. Cloud cover moves into the region from the
north tonight. As winds lighten, they will shift to southwest for
a period overnight before strengthening and returning to the
northwest Wednesday morning.

&&

Gld watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
Colorado...none.
NE...none.
&&

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