Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
341 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2019
Short term...(this evening through Sunday night)
issued at 337 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2019
Mostly zonal flow aloft was dominating over the tri-state area
earlier today along with low level cold air advection moving in behind a weak
cold front that passed through the area this morning. Skies have
cleared out and highs only got into the mid to upper 60s. Our
surface flow will become southwesterly shortly before turning
south as another shortwave moves across our area from the
southeast tonight. Winds are also expected to increase with this
system coming through, and skies will become more cloudy as a
Tomorrow the trough will strengthen over The Rockies leading to
the pressure gradient over our area tightening and increasing
winds ahead of this system. We are still forecast to dry out,
dropping our relative humidity values in the lower teens for the southern half of
our County Warning Area. Looking at guidance, winds will become west 15 to 25 mph
increasing at peak afternoon heating to around 25 to 35 mph with
gusts potentially up to 45-50 mph.
As a result, felt it was a no-brainer to go ahead and upgrade the
Fire Weather Watch to a red flag warning. Kept the same counties
at this time as confidence wasn't high enough to expand the
warning any further north, but that may change tonight on the
midnight crew's watch. Timing is a little difficult because as the
trough deepens and start to trek east, we will see an increase in
moisture to our area ahead of the system. So, as of now, thinking
if we do reach critical fire weather criteria, for counties not
in the warning, it will be very brief in time, and more isolated
to our southeastern counties.
Lastly, for Sunday afternoon, because we are so dry and this time
of year, we are is still a risk of patchy blowing dust across the
entire tri-state area.
Monday is looking less likely to met fire weather thresholds, so
kept it out at this time, but blowing dust could be possible as
winds are expected to be sustained around 20 mph. Looking at flow
aloft, we will Switch Back to the northwest after the trough has
moved out of our area. As a result, we will see clearing skies
with highs in the mid 50s. And overnight lows in the lower 30s.
Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 230 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2019
The County Warning Area lies on the backside of a lifting trough Monday. A ridge
moves across the tri-state area Tuesday. An upper level trough
begins to extend from the previous low, now over North-East Canada,
into the Central Plains by Thursday. This trough moves across the
central U.S. Through Friday morning as another ridge approaches. A
new trough swings southeastward into the northwest plains Saturday.
Surface leeside troughing sets up along the Front Range Tuesday. As
the associated low moves out of the tri-state area, a cold front
passes through Wednesday bringing precipitation in the form of rain
and snow. Dry conditions return Thursday night as high pressure
moves into the area. Another cold front moves into the northern
plains Saturday causing leeside troughing to redevelop along the
High temperatures will range from the mid-40s to upper 60s through
the extended forecast period. Lows in the 20s to mid-40s are
expected. Monday and Wednesday could be breezy with winds from the
north-northwest at 15-25mph and gusts up to 35 mph. Aside from
Wednesday and Thursday when the precipitation and front are
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1133 am MDT Sat Oct 19 2019
Throughout the remainder of the taf period, VFR conditions will
prevail at the Goodland and McCook terminals. With clear skies and
stronger winds terminals could see some low level wind shear overnight.
Clear skies will become partly cloudy tonight. We will see winds
become south increasing to 10 to 20 mph with gust up to 30 mph.
Winds will continue to increase tomorrow first west at 15 to 25
mph shifting to the northwest 25 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Gusts
could get up to 50 mph.
Kansas...red flag warning from 11 am MDT /noon CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM
CDT/ Sunday for ksz013-027>029-041-042.
Colorado...red flag warning from 11 am to 8 PM MDT Sunday for coz253-254.