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fxus63 kgld 120435 
afdgld

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
935 PM MST Wed Dec 11 2019

Short term...(this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 231 PM MST Wed Dec 11 2019

Satellite imagery shows that much of yesterday's snowfall across
Rawlins and Decatur counties has melted. Southeast winds have helped
warm US up today with high temperatures reaching the 40s and 50s.
A weak upper ridge will continue to move across the region this
evening with a shortwave trough moving into eastern Colorado.
Clouds are expected to increase heading into this evening as upper
levels become saturated. Am not anticipating any precipitation
with the trough moving in as low and mid-levels will remain dry.

Thursday, the trough will continue to progress east with
northwest flow setting up over the region. Temperatures will once
again reach the 50s for highs while lows will range from the mid-
20s to low 30s. Dry conditions will persist through Thursday
night.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 222 PM MST Wed Dec 11 2019

Synopsis... accumulating snow will be possible this weekend
mainly Saturday morning through Sunday evening. While there is
very low confidence in the potential amounts of snow, it would
seem a few inches of snow is possible. Check future forecasts with
better information for updates. With the snow will come cooler
temperatures as lows drop into the teens starting Sunday night.
Now strong winds are expected at this time, which is unusual for
this kind of system. Quiet, sunny weather is expected across the
tri-state area Monday through Wednesday.

Discussion... upper-level ridging is expected over the tri-state
area to begin the long term forecast period which means Friday
will see mostly quiet weather with partly cloudy skies. However, a
strong longwave upper-level trough developing over the eastern
Pacific Ocean will progress eastward to the western United States
by Saturday which will bring with it strong upper-level support
for ascent and precipitation. Given the cooler temperatures that
are also expected to arrive with this upper-level trough, snow
will be the dominant precipitation type, but some rain will also
occasionally mix in during the afternoon hours Saturday and Sunday
when temperatures are at their greatest.

Long term model guidance from the GFS and the Euro has been all
over the place when it comes to snow amounts, and as such there is
very little confidence at all in what the higher snow totals
could be. Most of the guidance from the last 24 hours suggests
that the higher amounts of snow will generally be along and south
of Interstate 70, but even that could change between now and
Saturday/Sunday. Snow totals from the previous forecast package
were on the order of 3 to 6 inches, but this forecast package only
has snow totals on the order of 1 to 3 inches. The biggest source
of the uncertainty in amounts comes from the strength and
location of the upper-level trough. The 12z GFS has a stronger
trough allowing for more precipitation while the Euro has a weaker
trough with lesser amounts. More will be known about this
potential winter system as we get closer towards the end of this
week.

There is good model agreement at this time that this trough will
be quickly continuing to progress eastward, meaning that any
precipitation chances should quickly diminish late Sunday. Monday
through Wednesday of next week appear to be quiet weather days as
the Central High plains will be on the convergent side of the
passing upper-level trough and a weak upper-level ridge builds
over the mountain west. This will allow temperatures to warm up
slightly with afternoon highs returning back to the 40s by
Wednesday.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 935 PM MST Wed Dec 11 2019

For kgld and kmck, VFR conditions through the period. Kgld will
see a west-northwest wind near 10kts at taf issuance remain steady
through about 17z before backing to the west then southwest
Thursday afternoon. Wind speeds will remain below 10kts. Kmck will
see light and variable winds through about 07z before west winds
under 10kts become established and continue through 16z. After 17z
winds slowly back to the southwest at speeds under 10kts.

&&

Gld watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
Colorado...none.
NE...none.
&&

$$

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