Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kgld 200235
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
835 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2019
issued at 835 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2019
Have updated the forecast through early Sunday evening.
Main concerns are for fire weather and blowing dust Sunday.
Current red flag warning area looks good based on 00z data.
Have adjusted the blowing dust threat to areas generally from
McCook to Goodland and Flagler west. This area is under favorable
surface to 1km winds, mainly after 21z through about 01z where
good mixing will also occur. Local ongoing research shows better
chances for blowing dust exist with wind gusts exceeding 35kts,
higher probabilities with gusts over 40kts which looks likely in
the northwest portion of the area. Soil moisture is very favorable
given dry conditions the past several days. My thinking is that a
plume or two of dust could originate in northeast Colorado,
northwest of our forecast area, and move toward the southeast into
our area from late afternoon toward sunset. Confidence isnt
terribly high but its certainly possible. Dust dispersion models
hint at this scenario as well.
Will also have to monitor the possibility of a High Wind Warning
being needed for Yuma County. Currently have wind gusts to 55 mph
in updated forecast. 0.5-1km winds reach 50kts in the northwest
corner of the County around 00z Monday. 00z hrrr shows a small
area of 50kt wind gusts in this area around 23z.
Short term...(this evening through Sunday night)
issued at 337 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2019
Mostly zonal flow aloft was dominating over the tri-state area
earlier today along with low level cold air advection moving in behind a weak
cold front that passed through the area this morning. Skies have
cleared out and highs only got into the mid to upper 60s. Our
surface flow will become southwesterly shortly before turning
south as another shortwave moves across our area from the
southeast tonight. Winds are also expected to increase with this
system coming through, and skies will become more cloudy as a
Tomorrow the trough will strengthen over The Rockies leading to
the pressure gradient over our area tightening and increasing
winds ahead of this system. We are still forecast to dry out,
dropping our relative humidity values in the lower teens for the southern half of
our County Warning Area. Looking at guidance, winds will become west 15 to 25 mph
increasing at peak afternoon heating to around 25 to 35 mph with
gusts potentially up to 45-50 mph.
As a result, felt it was a no-brainer to go ahead and upgrade the
Fire Weather Watch to a red flag warning. Kept the same counties
at this time as confidence wasn't high enough to expand the
warning any further north, but that may change tonight on the
midnight crew's watch. Timing is a little difficult because as the
trough deepens and start to trek east, we will see an increase in
moisture to our area ahead of the system. So, as of now, thinking
if we do reach critical fire weather criteria, for counties not
in the warning, it will be very brief in time, and more isolated
to our southeastern counties.
Lastly, for Sunday afternoon, because we are so dry and this time
of year, we are is still a risk of patchy blowing dust across the
entire tri-state area.
Monday is looking less likely to met fire weather thresholds, so
kept it out at this time, but blowing dust could be possible as
winds are expected to be sustained around 20 mph. Looking at flow
aloft, we will Switch Back to the northwest after the trough has
moved out of our area. As a result, we will see clearing skies
with highs in the mid 50s. And overnight lows in the lower 30s.
Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 230 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2019
The County Warning Area lies on the backside of a lifting trough Monday. A ridge
moves across the tri-state area Tuesday. An upper level trough
begins to extend from the previous low, now over North-East Canada,
into the Central Plains by Thursday. This trough moves across the
central U.S. Through Friday morning as another ridge approaches. A
new trough swings southeastward into the northwest plains Saturday.
Surface leeside troughing sets up along the Front Range Tuesday. As
the associated low moves out of the tri-state area, a cold front
passes through Wednesday bringing precipitation in the form of rain
and snow. Dry conditions return Thursday night as high pressure
moves into the area. Another cold front moves into the northern
plains Saturday causing leeside troughing to redevelop along the
High temperatures will range from the mid-40s to upper 60s through
the extended forecast period. Lows in the 20s to mid-40s are
expected. Monday and Wednesday could be breezy with winds from the
north-northwest at 15-25mph and gusts up to 35 mph. Aside from
Wednesday and Thursday when the precipitation and front are
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 450 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2019
For kgld and kmck, VFR conditions through the period. South to
southeast winds will slowly increase overnight with kgld seeing
the strongest winds at speeds sustained at 15 to 20kts with higher
gusts. On Sunday winds will veer to the west then northwest at
kgld with gusts 35kts expected in the afternoon. At kmck west
winds will increase with gusts near 35kts expected in the
Kansas...red flag warning from 11 am MDT /noon CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM
CDT/ Sunday for ksz013-027>029-041-042.
Colorado...red flag warning from 11 am to 8 PM MDT Sunday for coz253-254.