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fxus63 kgld 171103 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
503 am MDT Thu Oct 17 2019

Short term...(today through Saturday night)
issued at 220 am MDT Thu Oct 17 2019

Across the tri state region this morning, skies are mainly clear
with a veil of high cloud starting to work into the area from the
northwest. A light west-southwest flow is setting up over central/western portions of
the County Warning Area as of 08z, which is ahead of a surface trough getting set up
along the eastern slopes of The Rockies. Temperatures are not
dropping as fast with the clear skies, compared to last night. This
is due to the west-southwest surface flow over portions of the County Warning Area. With this,
there is a wide range in temps at this time from the upper 30s to
almost 50f.

Going into today, the main wx focus will continue to be on fire wx
conditions setting up for the afternoon hrs. Upper ridge cresting
over the plains region will continue to shift eastward thru the
daytime hours. Heading towards the surface, high pressure is located
east of the cwa, and a digging trough will continue to deepen over
the Front Range. Overall this will give the area a south-southwest flow from the
surface to 500 mb. This direction will bring about decent downslope
conditions and high temps in the lower to mid 80s. Gradient winds
should reach into the 15-30 mph range, especially along and west of
Kansas Highway 25. The expected temps will allow for low relative humidity readings
below 20 percent for most locales. This will bring about dangerous
fire wx conditions. The only conditions that may temper expected
relative humidity/wind numbers will be the veil of high cloud over Utah that is
trekking east over The Rockies. This may be enough to keep temps
from climbing and airmass to mix. The airmass currently is seeing 25-
35% relative humidity over western locales which will only worsen thru the
will be upgrading the fire wx watch to a red flag warning for the
afternoon hrs for central and western zones.

For tonight into Friday, dry conditions will persist ahead of an
approaching shortwave that will traverse the area late in the day
into the evening hours. By Saturday, high pressure will build into
the area from the northwest behind the exiting system. Cooler temps will
work back into the region. With models showing little to no quantitative precipitation forecast with
the passage of the trough, looking for only light showers to occur.
Very weak instability may trigger a rumble of thunder after 00z
Saturday, but won't be a big factor.

For temps, 80s today will transition to mainly 60s/70s for highs
Friday as front shift thru the area, then mainly 60s on northerly
flow for Saturday. Overnight lows will have 40s tonight go to a mix
of upper 30s to mid 40s for Friday/Saturday nights.

Long term...(sunday through wednesday)
issued at 220 am MDT Thu Oct 17 2019

There are two upper level short wave troughs of interest in this
part of the forecast. The first trough for early next week
continues to have a track north of the forecast area. The last four
runs of the GFS have been fairly consistent in keeping it centered
over Nebraska and South Dakota, with the drier air on the south side
of it moving over the forecast area. The gefs members are also
fairly consistent with the current track. The last three runs of
the European model (ecmwf) have shown more variability in the track of the trough
than the GFS, varying from further north to further south than what
the GFS has shown. Regardless the European model (ecmwf) also shows little to no
precipitation for the forecast area with this storm system. The main
effect will be the winds behind it over the forecast area.

Precipitation chances continue to slowly shift north, which is
expected due to the gradual northward shift in the track of the
closed low. Confidence of anything more than a few hundredths of an
inch of precipitation (snow/rain) occurring continues to be low.

The strongest winds look to be on Sunday as the base of the closed
low moves over the forecast area. This is normally where the
strongest winds are located with a closed low. Wind gusts up to 50
miles per hour would be well within reason for Sunday afternoon. Given the dry
ground conditions and harvest ongoing, blowing dust may be a
concern. However confidence is low at this point that the conditions
would be favorable for a Brown out. Monday the winds will not be as
strong due to the closed low being to the northeast.

The next upper level trough to move through the plains will be mid
week. The current data set has the trough over the northern plains,
with a track slightly further north than the one moving through
Sunday. Gefs members are all over the place with the track of this
trough, which is not too surprising given this is a week out. The
last three runs of the European model (ecmwf) and GFS are erratic with the speed of
the next trough, varying by a couple of days as far as where it will
be east/west over the Continental U.S.. however the north/south track has been
fairly consistent, similar to the track of the one coming Sunday. If
this holds, am doubtful the forecast area will see more than wind
with this trough passage.

Temperatures for this period will have some variability due to the
two cold fronts moving through, one Sunday night and another
Wednesday night. However the arrival of the one Wednesday night
will depend on when the associated upper level trough will move
through. Due to the upper level trough tracking north of the
forecast area, am not foreseeing any dramatic cool Downs with these
cold fronts at this time.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 502 am MDT Thu Oct 17 2019

VFR conditions for both taf sites expected thru the forecast
period with sky clear giving way to sct-bkn280.

Winds for kgld, west-southwest around 10kts thru 19z, then S 15-25kts. By
23z, southeast 10-15kts becoming west around 10kts by 07z Friday. Low level wind shear 07z-
12z Friday 310@40kts.

Winds for kmck, light/variable thru 17z, then southeast around 10kts
with gusts to 20kts from 17z Thursday to 04z Friday. Low level wind shear 04z-12z
Friday 190@40kts.


Fire weather...
issued at 220 am MDT Thu Oct 17 2019

For this afternoon, a red flag warning is in effect for NE
Colorado, portions of northwest Kansas and SW Nebraska. Low relative humidity readings
around 10-16 percent and gusts reaching 25-30 mph are probable.
High clouds coming across the region today may temper conditions
some, but the affected areas are already seeing west-southwest winds and
rh's in the 35-45 percent range to start. These winds are also
holding temperatures up and will already give the area a jump
start into the forecasted highs in the 80s.


Gld watches/warnings/advisories... flag warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ today to 6 PM MDT /7
PM CDT/ this evening for ksz001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042. flag warning from noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening for
coz252>254. flag warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ today to 6 PM MDT /7
PM CDT/ this evening for nez079-080.



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