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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
143 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

Short term...tonight and Saturday
issued at 142 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

Clear and quiet weather through Saturday. Focus in the short term
is on temperatures and moderate wind gusts tomorrow.

This afternoon, surface high pressure continued to build into
southwest Wisconsin and drier air had filtered into the forecast
area. As a result clouds managed to dissipate by around 18z with
clear skies expected through the rest of the afternoon.

Tonight, skies remain clear, but a light SW wind will help keep
temperatures from plummeting. Lows will be in the low to middle
20s, coolest across the north and warmest near Lake Michigan.

Saturday, winds increase a bit with gusts to 15 to 25 mph through
the midday. A few high clouds may stream across from time to time
as a mid-level shortwave passes north of the state, but overall a
mostly sunny day is forecast. Highs will be in the upper 30s
across the Northwoods, and in the lower 40s elsewhere.

Long term...Saturday night through Friday
issued at 142 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

Weak upper systems passing north of the state may bring a chance
of rain or snow showers across the north Sunday into Monday

Attention then turns to a significant winter storm expected to
move across the central United States Tuesday and Tuesday night.
The first piece of energy and 500mb trough moves across the
region. Models continue to waffle on the storm track and the
northward extent of the precipitation shield into northern
Wisconsin. The GFS model has shifted a tad bit further south
compared to the model run last night. European model (ecmwf) continues to be the
most consistent model with the storm track and is farthest north
with the precipitation shield. The Canadian/GFS model would leave
our far north mainly dry. The models will more than likely to
change over the next several days, thus will continue to highlight
the uncertainty in the storm track and precipitation/snowfall
amounts in the hazardous weather outlook (hwo).

As next week progresses, the main 500mb trough across the
southwestern United States will dig and then gradually eject
northeast by the weekend of Nov 30/Dec 1. Low confidence in the
small chances of rain/snow on Wednesday. Dry conditions are
expected on Thanksgiving day with highs in the 30s. A weak impulse
is expected to bring a chance of light rain or snow on Friday.
High temperatures are expected to be at or slightly above normal
during the period.

Aviation...for 18z taf issuance
issued at 1124 am CST Fri Nov 22 2019

During the late morning clouds started to break apart and
conditions were improving from MVFR to VFR across central and
northeast WI. Expect this trend to continue as high pressure
builds in from the west, with all locations improving to VFR by
mid- afternoon. Skies remain clear through the night. Low level wind shear is
expected late tonight and Saturday morning across northern and
central WI, from about 07z to 15z, at the krhi, kauw, kcwa taf
sites. Southwest winds start gusting to around 15 to 20 kts late
Saturday morning at all sites.

Grb watches/warnings/advisories...


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